Which Vikings props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Vikings averaged 20.2 points per game and the game total went Over in 8 of 17 games (47%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 51% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson Rec Yds | T.J. Hockenson Receptions | +0.84 | 24 of 50 |
| Justin Jefferson Rec Yds | Justin Jefferson Receptions | +0.84 | 29 of 78 |
| MIN Points | Game Total Points | +0.69 | 36 of 85 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.65 | 38 of 85 |
| MIN Points | Jordan Mason Rush TDs | +0.60 | 2 of 16 |
| T.J. Hockenson Receptions | Jordan Mason Rush Yds | +0.56 | 4 of 15 |
| MIN Points | Jordan Mason Rush Att | +0.54 | 3 of 16 |
| Game Total Points | Aaron Jones Rec Yds | +0.54 | 9 of 29 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent Points | Aaron Jones Rush Att | -0.40 | 5 of 29 |
| Opponent Points | Aaron Jones Rush Yds | -0.41 | 6 of 29 |
| Opponent Points | Jordan Mason Rush TDs | -0.42 | 1 of 16 |
| Opponent Points | Jordan Mason Rush Yds | -0.53 | 4 of 16 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN Points | 23.5 | 23.0 | 29% | 51% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 23.5 | 23.0 | 47% | 52% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 45.5 | 45.0 | 41% | 54% | 85 |
| Justin Jefferson Rec Yds | 81.5 | 81.0 | 24% | 51% | 78 |
| Justin Jefferson Receptions | 6.5 | 6.0 | 24% | 45% | 78 |
| Justin Jefferson Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 12% | 38% | 78 |
| T.J. Hockenson Rec Yds | 39.5 | 39.0 | 27% | 56% | 50 |
| T.J. Hockenson Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 27% | 54% | 50 |
| T.J. Hockenson Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 20% | 18% | 50 |
| Jordan Addison Rec Yds | 41.5 | 41.0 | 36% | 54% | 46 |
| Jordan Addison Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 36% | 48% | 46 |
| Jordan Addison Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 21% | 39% | 46 |
| Josh Oliver Rec Yds | 13.5 | 13.0 | 42% | 51% | 37 |
| Josh Oliver Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25% | 22% | 37 |
| Aaron Jones Rush Yds | 53.5 | 53.0 | 33% | 52% | 29 |
| Aaron Jones Rush Att | 13.5 | 13.0 | 33% | 52% | 29 |
| Aaron Jones Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 17% | 24% | 29 |
| Aaron Jones Rec Yds | 20.5 | 20.0 | 33% | 48% | 29 |
| Aaron Jones Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 8% | 10% | 29 |
| Jordan Mason Rush Yds | 45.5 | 45.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Jordan Mason Rush Att | 10.5 | 10.0 | 44% | 44% | 16 |
| Jordan Mason Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 31% | 31% | 16 |
| J.J. McCarthy Pass Yds | 150.5 | 150.0 | 50% | 50% | 10 |
| J.J. McCarthy Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 40% | 40% | 10 |
| J.J. McCarthy Interceptions | 1.5 | 1.0 | 40% | 40% | 10 |
| J.J. McCarthy Rush Yds | 15.5 | 15.0 | 50% | 50% | 10 |
| J.J. McCarthy Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 40% | 40% | 10 |
Build a Vikings parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Vikings are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 43 of 85 Vikings games (51%), and 8 of 17 (47%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Vikings alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Vikings player profiles: Justin Jefferson · T.J. Hockenson · Jordan Addison · Josh Oliver · Aaron Jones · Jordan Mason
NFC North rivals: Chicago Bears · Detroit Lions · Green Bay Packers
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money