Which Vikings props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Vikings averaged 20.2 points per game and the game total went Over in 8 of 17 games (47%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 51% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson Rec Yds | Justin Jefferson Receptions | +0.83 | 46 of 71 |
| T.J. Hockenson Rec Yds | T.J. Hockenson Receptions | +0.80 | 38 of 51 |
| Jordan Mason Rush TDs | Josh Oliver Rec TDs | +0.66 | 3 of 17 |
| Jordan Mason Rush Yds | T.J. Hockenson Receptions | +0.56 | 6 of 15 |
| Jordan Mason Rush Att | T.J. Hockenson Receptions | +0.51 | 6 of 15 |
| Jordan Mason Rush TDs | T.J. Hockenson Receptions | +0.42 | 4 of 15 |
| Jordan Mason Rush Att | Justin Jefferson Rec Yds | +0.41 | 5 of 17 |
| Jordan Addison Rec Yds | T.J. Hockenson Rec Yds | +0.39 | 19 of 33 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy Interceptions | T.J. Hockenson Rec Yds | -0.40 | 2 of 23 |
| J.J. McCarthy Pass TDs | Justin Jefferson Receptions | -0.43 | 2 of 32 |
| J.J. McCarthy Interceptions | T.J. Hockenson Receptions | -0.45 | 4 of 23 |
| J.J. McCarthy Pass TDs | Justin Jefferson Rec Yds | -0.54 | 1 of 32 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson Rec Yds | 60.5 | 80.0 | 53% | 70% | 71 |
| Justin Jefferson Receptions | 4.5 | 6.0 | 53% | 73% | 71 |
| Jalen Nailor Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 12% | 64 |
| T.J. Hockenson Rec Yds | 25.5 | 39.0 | 53% | 78% | 51 |
| T.J. Hockenson Receptions | 2.5 | 4.0 | 60% | 80% | 51 |
| Josh Oliver Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 17% | 48 |
| Jordan Addison Rec Yds | 40.5 | 44.0 | 50% | 60% | 40 |
| J.J. McCarthy Pass TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 19% | 32 |
| J.J. McCarthy Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 47% | 25% | 32 |
| Jalen Nailor Rec Yds | 30.5 | 28.0 | 50% | 36% | 28 |
| Aaron Jones Rush Yds | 46.5 | 58.0 | 50% | 63% | 27 |
| Jordan Mason Rush Att | 9.5 | 10.0 | 53% | 53% | 17 |
| Jordan Mason Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| Jordan Mason Rush Yds | 46.5 | 45.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| J.J. McCarthy Pass Yds | 157.5 | 150.0 | 50% | 50% | 10 |
| J.J. McCarthy Rush Yds | 18.5 | 19.0 | 56% | 56% | 9 |
Build a Vikings parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Vikings are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 43 of 85 Vikings games (51%), and 8 of 17 (47%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Vikings alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Vikings player profiles: Justin Jefferson · Jalen Nailor · T.J. Hockenson · Josh Oliver · Jordan Addison · J.J. McCarthy
NFC North rivals: Chicago Bears · Detroit Lions · Green Bay Packers
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money