Which Bears props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Bears averaged 25.9 points per game and the game total went Over in 8 of 17 games (47%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 48% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Monangai Rush Yds | Kyle Monangai Rush Att | +0.94 | 7 of 17 |
| Roschon Johnson Rush Yds | Roschon Johnson Rush Att | +0.89 | 19 of 34 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.77 | 32 of 85 |
| CHI Points | Luther Burden III Rec Yds | +0.72 | 6 of 15 |
| CHI Points | Game Total Points | +0.69 | 23 of 85 |
| Game Total Points | Colston Loveland Rec TDs | +0.64 | 4 of 16 |
| CHI Points | Luther Burden III Receptions | +0.63 | 4 of 15 |
| CHI Points | Caleb Williams Pass TDs | +0.59 | 8 of 34 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams Interceptions | Luther Burden III Rec Yds | -0.50 | 1 of 15 |
| D'Andre Swift Rush Yds | Colston Loveland Rec TDs | -0.51 | 1 of 15 |
| Caleb Williams Pass Yds | Kyle Monangai Rush TDs | -0.51 | 2 of 17 |
| D'Andre Swift Rush Att | Colston Loveland Rec TDs | -0.64 | 0 of 15 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI Points | 22.5 | 22.0 | 65% | 41% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 22.5 | 22.0 | 53% | 52% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 44.5 | 44.0 | 59% | 46% | 85 |
| Cole Kmet Rec Yds | 27.5 | 27.0 | 44% | 50% | 82 |
| Cole Kmet Receptions | 2.5 | 2.0 | 19% | 56% | 82 |
| Cole Kmet Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 12% | 17% | 82 |
| Roschon Johnson Rush Yds | 6.5 | 6.0 | 17% | 59% | 34 |
| Roschon Johnson Rush Att | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0% | 59% | 34 |
| Roschon Johnson Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0% | 21% | 34 |
| Caleb Williams Pass Yds | 217.5 | 217.0 | 53% | 47% | 34 |
| Caleb Williams Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 53% | 47% | 34 |
| Caleb Williams Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 32% | 34 |
| Caleb Williams Rush Yds | 21.5 | 21.0 | 41% | 50% | 34 |
| Caleb Williams Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 9% | 34 |
| D'Andre Swift Rush Yds | 58.5 | 58.0 | 50% | 48% | 33 |
| D'Andre Swift Rush Att | 14.5 | 14.0 | 31% | 39% | 33 |
| D'Andre Swift Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 44% | 39% | 33 |
| D'Andre Swift Rec Yds | 14.5 | 14.0 | 44% | 52% | 33 |
| Rome Odunze Rec Yds | 40.5 | 40.0 | 58% | 45% | 29 |
| Rome Odunze Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 42% | 41% | 29 |
| Rome Odunze Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 42% | 24% | 29 |
| Kyle Monangai Rush Yds | 28.5 | 28.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| Kyle Monangai Rush Att | 8.5 | 8.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| Kyle Monangai Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| Colston Loveland Rec Yds | 31.5 | 31.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Colston Loveland Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 44% | 44% | 16 |
| Colston Loveland Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 31% | 31% | 16 |
| Luther Burden III Rec Yds | 35.5 | 35.0 | 47% | 47% | 15 |
| Luther Burden III Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 33% | 33% | 15 |
Build a Bears parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Bears are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 41 of 85 Bears games (48%), and 8 of 17 (47%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Bears alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Bears player profiles: Cole Kmet · Roschon Johnson · Caleb Williams · D'Andre Swift · Rome Odunze · Kyle Monangai
NFC North rivals: Detroit Lions · Green Bay Packers · Minnesota Vikings
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money