Which Bears props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Bears averaged 25.9 points per game and the game total went Over in 8 of 17 games (47%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 48% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland Rec Yds | Colston Loveland Receptions | +0.80 | 8 of 15 |
| DJ Moore Rec Yds | DJ Moore Receptions | +0.73 | 27 of 47 |
| Caleb Williams Pass Yds | Luther Burden III Rec Yds | +0.58 | 6 of 15 |
| Caleb Williams Pass TDs | Luther Burden III Rec Yds | +0.58 | 6 of 15 |
| D'Andre Swift Rush Yds | Kyle Monangai Rush Yds | +0.54 | 4 of 15 |
| Caleb Williams Pass Yds | Rome Odunze Rec Yds | +0.48 | 7 of 26 |
| Caleb Williams Interceptions | Cole Kmet Rec Yds | +0.46 | 9 of 28 |
| Caleb Williams Pass TDs | DJ Moore Rec TDs | +0.44 | 7 of 32 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams Pass TDs | D'Andre Swift Rush Att | -0.44 | 9 of 32 |
| D'Andre Swift Rush Att | Colston Loveland Receptions | -0.49 | 7 of 15 |
| Caleb Williams Interceptions | Luther Burden III Rec Yds | -0.50 | 2 of 15 |
| D'Andre Swift Rush Att | Colston Loveland Rec Yds | -0.70 | 3 of 15 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet Rec Yds | 15.5 | 28.0 | 67% | 77% | 69 |
| DJ Moore Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 29% | 48 |
| DJ Moore Rec Yds | 42.5 | 46.0 | 50% | 64% | 47 |
| DJ Moore Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 50% | 68% | 47 |
| Caleb Williams Pass Yds | 219.5 | 220.0 | 53% | 50% | 32 |
| Caleb Williams Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2.0 | 53% | 50% | 32 |
| Caleb Williams Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 31% | 32 |
| Caleb Williams Rush Yds | 17.5 | 21.0 | 53% | 56% | 32 |
| D'Andre Swift Rush Att | 12.5 | 14.0 | 65% | 72% | 32 |
| D'Andre Swift Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 38% | 32 |
| Rome Odunze Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 22% | 32 |
| D'Andre Swift Rush Yds | 62.5 | 58.0 | 50% | 45% | 31 |
| D'Andre Swift Rec Yds | 13.5 | 19.0 | 60% | 64% | 28 |
| Rome Odunze Rec Yds | 52.5 | 41.0 | 55% | 38% | 26 |
| Kyle Monangai Rush Yds | 32.5 | 28.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Luther Burden III Rec Yds | 34.5 | 35.0 | 53% | 53% | 15 |
| Colston Loveland Rec Yds | 37.5 | 38.0 | 53% | 53% | 15 |
| Colston Loveland Receptions | 2.5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 15 |
Build a Bears parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Bears are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 41 of 85 Bears games (48%), and 8 of 17 (47%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Bears alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Bears player profiles: Cole Kmet · DJ Moore · Caleb Williams · D'Andre Swift · Rome Odunze · Kyle Monangai
NFC North rivals: Detroit Lions · Green Bay Packers · Minnesota Vikings
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money