Caleb Williams (QB, Chicago Bears) — every number below comes from real box scores across the 2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted, with sample sizes shown. Estimated lines are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines.
| Market | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds | 219.5 | 220.0 | 53% | 50% | 32 |
| Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2.0 | 53% | 50% | 32 |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 31% | 32 |
| Rush Yds | 17.5 | 21.0 | 53% | 56% | 32 |
Props that historically rise and fall with Caleb Williams's production — the raw material of a coherent same game parlay.
| Partner Prop | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III Rec Yds | +0.58 | 6 of 15 |
| Rome Odunze Rec Yds | +0.48 | 7 of 26 |
| Cole Kmet Rec Yds | +0.46 | 9 of 28 |
| DJ Moore Rec TDs | +0.44 | 7 of 32 |
| DJ Moore Rec Yds | +0.44 | 11 of 31 |
| Colston Loveland Rec Yds | +0.43 | 6 of 15 |
Stack Caleb Williams in the Parlay Architect →
The table above shows the over rate against a trailing-median line for each market, in 2025 and across the full five-season sample. Rates near 50% are expected — lines track production. What matters for an SGP is which legs move together.
Historically, Luther Burden III — see the chemistry table. Positive chemistry means the props tend to go Over in the same games.
More Bears: Chicago Bears SGP page · Guides: QB-WR stacking · Player props 101