Caleb Williams (QB, Chicago Bears) — every number below comes from real box scores across the 2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted, with sample sizes shown. Estimated lines are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines.
| Market | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds | 217.5 | 217.0 | 53% | 47% | 34 |
| Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 53% | 47% | 34 |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 32% | 34 |
| Rush Yds | 21.5 | 21.0 | 41% | 50% | 34 |
| Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 9% | 34 |
Props that historically rise and fall with Caleb Williams's production — the raw material of a coherent same game parlay.
| Partner Prop | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|
| CHI Points | +0.59 | 8 of 34 |
| Luther Burden III Rec Yds | +0.58 | 6 of 15 |
| Colston Loveland Rec TDs | +0.49 | 5 of 16 |
| Game Total Points | +0.49 | 11 of 34 |
| Cole Kmet Rec Yds | +0.45 | 6 of 32 |
| Colston Loveland Rec Yds | +0.45 | 6 of 16 |
Stack Caleb Williams in the Parlay Architect →
The table above shows the over rate against a trailing-median line for each market, in 2025 and across the full five-season sample. Rates near 50% are expected — lines track production. What matters for an SGP is which legs move together.
Historically, CHI Points — see the chemistry table. Positive chemistry means the props tend to go Over in the same games.
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