Which Lions props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Lions averaged 28.3 points per game and the game total went Over in 10 of 17 games (59%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 54% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Rec Yds | Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions | +0.84 | 24 of 74 |
| Sam LaPorta Rec Yds | Sam LaPorta Receptions | +0.76 | 13 of 39 |
| Jared Goff Pass Yds | Amon-Ra St. Brown Rec Yds | +0.61 | 21 of 71 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Rush Yds | Brock Wright Rec Yds | +0.54 | 6 of 20 |
| Jared Goff Pass TDs | Amon-Ra St. Brown Rec TDs | +0.52 | 25 of 80 |
| Jared Goff Pass Yds | Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions | +0.46 | 16 of 71 |
| Jared Goff Pass Yds | Kalif Raymond Rec Yds | +0.44 | 22 of 56 |
| Jared Goff Pass TDs | Jameson Williams Rec TDs | +0.42 | 14 of 64 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta Rec Yds | Brock Wright Rec Yds | -0.38 | 0 of 19 |
| Sam LaPorta Receptions | Brock Wright Rec Yds | -0.43 | 0 of 19 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Rush TDs | Sam LaPorta Rec Yds | -0.43 | 5 of 39 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Rush Yds | Sam LaPorta Rec Yds | -0.49 | 7 of 37 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2.0 | 59% | 52% | 80 |
| Jared Goff Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 41% | 80 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 42% | 80 |
| Jared Goff Pass Yds | 257.5 | 258.0 | 53% | 47% | 75 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Rec Yds | 85.5 | 75.0 | 50% | 41% | 74 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions | 7.5 | 7.0 | 50% | 39% | 74 |
| Jameson Williams Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 25% | 64 |
| Kalif Raymond Rec Yds | 16.5 | 20.0 | 55% | 70% | 57 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Rush Att | 14.5 | 13.0 | 53% | 40% | 48 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 48% | 48 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Rush Yds | 64.5 | 67.0 | 53% | 59% | 46 |
| David Montgomery Rush Yds | 31.5 | 40.0 | 53% | 75% | 44 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Rec Yds | 31.5 | 30.0 | 50% | 44% | 43 |
| Jameson Williams Rec Yds | 69.5 | 66.0 | 53% | 38% | 39 |
| Sam LaPorta Rec Yds | 52.5 | 47.0 | 56% | 41% | 39 |
| Sam LaPorta Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 56% | 44% | 39 |
| Brock Wright Rec Yds | 22.5 | 11.0 | 50% | 33% | 33 |
| Isaac TeSlaa Rec Yds | 19.5 | 20.0 | 56% | 56% | 9 |
Build a Lions parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Lions are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 46 of 85 Lions games (54%), and 10 of 17 (59%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Lions alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Lions player profiles: Jared Goff · Amon-Ra St. Brown · Jameson Williams · Kalif Raymond · Jahmyr Gibbs · David Montgomery
NFC North rivals: Chicago Bears · Green Bay Packers · Minnesota Vikings
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money