Which Lions props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Lions averaged 28.3 points per game and the game total went Over in 10 of 17 games (59%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 54% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Rec Yds | Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions | +0.84 | 26 of 82 |
| DET Points | Game Total Points | +0.78 | 33 of 85 |
| Jameson Williams Rec Yds | Jameson Williams Receptions | +0.75 | 13 of 50 |
| DET Points | Jared Goff Pass TDs | +0.68 | 21 of 82 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.65 | 28 of 85 |
| Game Total Points | Jared Goff Pass TDs | +0.64 | 20 of 82 |
| DET Points | Amon-Ra St. Brown Rec TDs | +0.61 | 28 of 82 |
| Jared Goff Pass Yds | Amon-Ra St. Brown Rec Yds | +0.58 | 22 of 79 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta Rec Yds | Jahmyr Gibbs Rush TDs | -0.38 | 3 of 40 |
| Sam LaPorta Rec TDs | Jahmyr Gibbs Rush TDs | -0.39 | 0 of 40 |
| Sam LaPorta Rec Yds | Jahmyr Gibbs Rush Yds | -0.40 | 8 of 40 |
| Brock Wright Rec Yds | Jameson Williams Receptions | -0.49 | 2 of 31 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET Points | 27.5 | 27.0 | 47% | 47% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 24.5 | 24.0 | 53% | 46% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 51.5 | 51.0 | 53% | 47% | 85 |
| Jared Goff Pass Yds | 258.5 | 258.0 | 47% | 45% | 82 |
| Jared Goff Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2.0 | 29% | 28% | 82 |
| Jared Goff Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 41% | 82 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Rec Yds | 73.5 | 73.0 | 53% | 48% | 82 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions | 7.5 | 7.0 | 47% | 38% | 82 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 45% | 82 |
| Brock Wright Rec Yds | 8.5 | 8.0 | 62% | 48% | 50 |
| Brock Wright Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25% | 20% | 50 |
| Jameson Williams Rec Yds | 53.5 | 53.0 | 59% | 40% | 50 |
| Jameson Williams Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 41% | 32% | 50 |
| Jameson Williams Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 34% | 50 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Rush Yds | 68.5 | 68.0 | 35% | 47% | 49 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Rush Att | 13.5 | 13.0 | 53% | 47% | 49 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Rush TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 29% | 22% | 49 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Rec Yds | 30.5 | 30.0 | 53% | 45% | 49 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 20% | 49 |
| Sam LaPorta Rec Yds | 48.5 | 48.0 | 56% | 48% | 42 |
| Sam LaPorta Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 56% | 48% | 42 |
| Sam LaPorta Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 33% | 38% | 42 |
Build a Lions parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Lions are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 46 of 85 Lions games (54%), and 10 of 17 (59%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Lions alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Lions player profiles: Jared Goff · Amon-Ra St. Brown · Brock Wright · Jameson Williams · Jahmyr Gibbs · Sam LaPorta
NFC North rivals: Chicago Bears · Green Bay Packers · Minnesota Vikings
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money