Which Chiefs props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Chiefs averaged 21.3 points per game and the game total went Over in 4 of 17 games (24%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 40% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes Pass TDs | Rashee Rice Rec TDs | +0.81 | 11 of 28 |
| Xavier Worthy Rec Yds | Xavier Worthy Receptions | +0.77 | 11 of 30 |
| Travis Kelce Rec Yds | Travis Kelce Receptions | +0.77 | 37 of 81 |
| KC Points | Game Total Points | +0.71 | 42 of 85 |
| KC Points | Patrick Mahomes Pass TDs | +0.70 | 37 of 80 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.64 | 28 of 85 |
| Travis Kelce Rec Yds | Patrick Mahomes Pass Yds | +0.60 | 30 of 78 |
| KC Points | Rashee Rice Rec TDs | +0.57 | 8 of 28 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes Rush TDs | Xavier Worthy Rec Yds | -0.30 | 2 of 28 |
| Patrick Mahomes Pass TDs | Patrick Mahomes Interceptions | -0.31 | 9 of 80 |
| KC Points | Patrick Mahomes Interceptions | -0.34 | 8 of 80 |
| Patrick Mahomes Interceptions | Rashee Rice Rec TDs | -0.39 | 3 of 28 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC Points | 22.5 | 22.0 | 41% | 56% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 20.5 | 20.0 | 35% | 41% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 41.5 | 41.0 | 41% | 56% | 85 |
| Travis Kelce Rec Yds | 57.5 | 57.0 | 41% | 54% | 81 |
| Travis Kelce Receptions | 5.5 | 5.0 | 29% | 52% | 81 |
| Travis Kelce Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 33% | 81 |
| Patrick Mahomes Pass Yds | 261.5 | 261.0 | 43% | 54% | 80 |
| Patrick Mahomes Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 36% | 58% | 80 |
| Patrick Mahomes Interceptions | 1.5 | 1.0 | 14% | 16% | 80 |
| Patrick Mahomes Rush Yds | 24.5 | 24.0 | 64% | 48% | 80 |
| Patrick Mahomes Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 36% | 16% | 80 |
| Noah Gray Rec Yds | 16.5 | 16.0 | 43% | 44% | 70 |
| Noah Gray Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0% | 10% | 70 |
| Xavier Worthy Rec Yds | 41.5 | 41.0 | 43% | 47% | 30 |
| Xavier Worthy Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 36% | 43% | 30 |
| Xavier Worthy Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 7% | 23% | 30 |
| Rashee Rice Rec Yds | 60.5 | 60.0 | 50% | 46% | 28 |
| Rashee Rice Receptions | 6.5 | 6.0 | 62% | 39% | 28 |
| Rashee Rice Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 38% | 43% | 28 |
| Tyquan Thornton Rec Yds | 39.5 | 39.0 | 50% | 50% | 12 |
| Tyquan Thornton Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25% | 25% | 12 |
Build a Chiefs parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Chiefs are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 34 of 85 Chiefs games (40%), and 4 of 17 (24%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Chiefs alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Chiefs player profiles: Travis Kelce · Patrick Mahomes · Noah Gray · Xavier Worthy · Rashee Rice · Tyquan Thornton
AFC West rivals: Denver Broncos · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money