Which Chiefs props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Chiefs averaged 21.3 points per game and the game total went Over in 4 of 17 games (24%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 40% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt Rush Yds | Kareem Hunt Rush Att | +0.93 | 17 of 29 |
| Travis Kelce Rec Yds | Travis Kelce Receptions | +0.78 | 47 of 76 |
| Patrick Mahomes Pass TDs | Marquise Brown Rec TDs | +0.62 | 4 of 32 |
| Patrick Mahomes Pass Yds | Travis Kelce Rec Yds | +0.62 | 33 of 73 |
| Patrick Mahomes Interceptions | Kareem Hunt Rush TDs | +0.50 | 9 of 30 |
| Patrick Mahomes Pass Yds | Travis Kelce Receptions | +0.49 | 39 of 73 |
| Kareem Hunt Rush Yds | Travis Kelce Receptions | +0.48 | 18 of 29 |
| Travis Kelce Rec TDs | Marquise Brown Receptions | +0.45 | 3 of 16 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes Interceptions | Marquise Brown Rec TDs | -0.33 | 0 of 32 |
| Kareem Hunt Rush Att | Isiah Pacheco Rush Yds | -0.33 | 3 of 17 |
| Kareem Hunt Rush Att | Marquise Brown Receptions | -0.37 | 5 of 16 |
| Isiah Pacheco Rush Yds | Xavier Worthy Rec Yds | -0.51 | 5 of 15 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 29% | 52% | 80 |
| Patrick Mahomes Interceptions | 0.5 | 1.0 | 47% | 56% | 80 |
| Travis Kelce Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 31% | 80 |
| Travis Kelce Rec Yds | 47.5 | 57.0 | 53% | 63% | 76 |
| Travis Kelce Receptions | 3.5 | 5.0 | 71% | 84% | 76 |
| Patrick Mahomes Pass Yds | 260.5 | 261.0 | 50% | 55% | 75 |
| Patrick Mahomes Rush Yds | 29.5 | 26.0 | 57% | 39% | 70 |
| Isiah Pacheco Rush Yds | 33.5 | 40.0 | 54% | 67% | 46 |
| Marquise Brown Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 12% | 32 |
| Kareem Hunt Rush Att | 7.5 | 10.0 | 53% | 63% | 30 |
| Kareem Hunt Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 40% | 30 |
| Kareem Hunt Rush Yds | 33.5 | 38.0 | 53% | 66% | 29 |
| Rashee Rice Rec Yds | 79.5 | 64.0 | 50% | 33% | 27 |
| Xavier Worthy Rec Yds | 41.5 | 41.0 | 50% | 50% | 26 |
| Marquise Brown Rec Yds | 37.5 | 38.0 | 53% | 56% | 16 |
| Marquise Brown Receptions | 2.5 | 3.0 | 60% | 62% | 16 |
| Tyquan Thornton Rec Yds | 46.5 | 47.0 | 56% | 56% | 9 |
Build a Chiefs parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Chiefs are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 34 of 85 Chiefs games (40%), and 4 of 17 (24%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Chiefs alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Chiefs player profiles: Patrick Mahomes · Travis Kelce · Isiah Pacheco · Marquise Brown · Kareem Hunt · Rashee Rice
AFC West rivals: Denver Broncos · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money