Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City Chiefs) — every number below comes from real box scores across the 2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted, with sample sizes shown. Estimated lines are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines.
| Market | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds | 261.5 | 261.0 | 43% | 54% | 80 |
| Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 36% | 58% | 80 |
| Interceptions | 1.5 | 1.0 | 14% | 16% | 80 |
| Rush Yds | 24.5 | 24.0 | 64% | 48% | 80 |
| Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 36% | 16% | 80 |
Props that historically rise and fall with Patrick Mahomes's production — the raw material of a coherent same game parlay.
| Partner Prop | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice Rec TDs | +0.81 | 11 of 28 |
| KC Points | +0.70 | 37 of 80 |
| Travis Kelce Rec Yds | +0.60 | 30 of 78 |
| Game Total Points | +0.51 | 36 of 80 |
| Travis Kelce Receptions | +0.49 | 31 of 78 |
| Rashee Rice Rec Yds | +0.40 | 7 of 28 |
Stack Patrick Mahomes in the Parlay Architect →
The table above shows the over rate against a trailing-median line for each market, in 2025 and across the full five-season sample. Rates near 50% are expected — lines track production. What matters for an SGP is which legs move together.
Historically, Rashee Rice — see the chemistry table. Positive chemistry means the props tend to go Over in the same games.
More Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs SGP page · Guides: QB-WR stacking · Player props 101