Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City Chiefs) — every number below comes from real box scores across the 2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted, with sample sizes shown. Estimated lines are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines.
| Market | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 29% | 52% | 80 |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | 1.0 | 47% | 56% | 80 |
| Pass Yds | 260.5 | 261.0 | 50% | 55% | 75 |
| Rush Yds | 29.5 | 26.0 | 57% | 39% | 70 |
Props that historically rise and fall with Patrick Mahomes's production — the raw material of a coherent same game parlay.
| Partner Prop | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown Rec TDs | +0.62 | 4 of 32 |
| Travis Kelce Rec Yds | +0.62 | 33 of 73 |
| Kareem Hunt Rush TDs | +0.50 | 9 of 30 |
| Travis Kelce Receptions | +0.49 | 39 of 73 |
| Rashee Rice Rec Yds | +0.42 | 6 of 27 |
| Kareem Hunt Rush Yds | +0.39 | 11 of 26 |
Stack Patrick Mahomes in the Parlay Architect →
The table above shows the over rate against a trailing-median line for each market, in 2025 and across the full five-season sample. Rates near 50% are expected — lines track production. What matters for an SGP is which legs move together.
Historically, Marquise Brown — see the chemistry table. Positive chemistry means the props tend to go Over in the same games.
More Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs SGP page · Guides: QB-WR stacking · Player props 101