Which Broncos props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Broncos averaged 23.6 points per game and the game total went Over in 7 of 17 games (41%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 44% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton Rec Yds | Courtland Sutton Receptions | +0.85 | 29 of 72 |
| Evan Engram Rec Yds | Evan Engram Receptions | +0.79 | 6 of 15 |
| Bo Nix Pass TDs | Troy Franklin Rec TDs | +0.66 | 6 of 32 |
| RJ Harvey Rush Yds | Courtland Sutton Receptions | +0.52 | 6 of 16 |
| Bo Nix Pass Yds | Courtland Sutton Rec Yds | +0.49 | 15 of 31 |
| Bo Nix Pass Yds | Courtland Sutton Receptions | +0.49 | 15 of 31 |
| Bo Nix Pass Yds | RJ Harvey Rush TDs | +0.48 | 5 of 17 |
| Bo Nix Pass Yds | RJ Harvey Rush Yds | +0.45 | 6 of 16 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins Rush Att | RJ Harvey Rush TDs | -0.36 | 1 of 17 |
| Bo Nix Pass TDs | Bo Nix Rush Yds | -0.37 | 6 of 32 |
| J.K. Dobbins Rush Att | RJ Harvey Rush Yds | -0.42 | 3 of 16 |
| Bo Nix Rush Yds | RJ Harvey Rush TDs | -0.45 | 0 of 17 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 31% | 80 |
| Courtland Sutton Rec Yds | 61.5 | 62.0 | 53% | 47% | 72 |
| Courtland Sutton Receptions | 4.5 | 5.0 | 53% | 47% | 72 |
| Bo Nix Pass Yds | 211.5 | 216.0 | 53% | 59% | 32 |
| Bo Nix Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 35% | 44% | 32 |
| Bo Nix Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 53% | 47% | 32 |
| Bo Nix Rush Yds | 17.5 | 18.0 | 53% | 53% | 32 |
| Troy Franklin Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 22% | 32 |
| Troy Franklin Rec Yds | 39.5 | 27.0 | 50% | 31% | 29 |
| J.K. Dobbins Rush Att | 13.5 | 14.0 | 53% | 53% | 17 |
| RJ Harvey Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| RJ Harvey Rush Yds | 34.5 | 30.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Evan Engram Rec Yds | 32.5 | 33.0 | 53% | 53% | 15 |
| Evan Engram Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 53% | 53% | 15 |
| Pat Bryant Rec Yds | 31.5 | 32.0 | 55% | 55% | 11 |
| J.K. Dobbins Rush Yds | 78.5 | 77.0 | 50% | 50% | 10 |
Build a Broncos parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Broncos are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 37 of 85 Broncos games (44%), and 7 of 17 (41%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Broncos alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Broncos player profiles: Courtland Sutton · Bo Nix · Troy Franklin · J.K. Dobbins · RJ Harvey · Evan Engram
AFC West rivals: Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money