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Denver Broncos Same Game Parlay: Correlated Props & Hit Rates

Which Broncos props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.

In 2025 the Broncos averaged 23.6 points per game and the game total went Over in 7 of 17 games (41%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 44% of the time.

The signature stack: Bo Nix Pass Yds + Courtland Sutton Rec Yds have a chemistry of +0.43 — both went Over their typical lines together in 15 of 31 shared games. Why QB-WR stacks work →

Props that win together (Broncos chemistry pairs)

Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.

Leg ALeg BChemistryBoth Over
Courtland Sutton Rec YdsCourtland Sutton Receptions+0.8529 of 72
Evan Engram Rec YdsEvan Engram Receptions+0.796 of 15
Bo Nix Pass TDsTroy Franklin Rec TDs+0.666 of 32
RJ Harvey Rush YdsCourtland Sutton Receptions+0.526 of 16
Bo Nix Pass YdsCourtland Sutton Rec Yds+0.4915 of 31
Bo Nix Pass YdsCourtland Sutton Receptions+0.4915 of 31
Bo Nix Pass YdsRJ Harvey Rush TDs+0.485 of 17
Bo Nix Pass YdsRJ Harvey Rush Yds+0.456 of 16

Legs that fight (or: Under candidates)

Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →

Leg ALeg BChemistryBoth Over
J.K. Dobbins Rush AttRJ Harvey Rush TDs-0.361 of 17
Bo Nix Pass TDsBo Nix Rush Yds-0.376 of 32
J.K. Dobbins Rush AttRJ Harvey Rush Yds-0.423 of 16
Bo Nix Rush YdsRJ Harvey Rush TDs-0.450 of 17

Broncos player prop hit rates

Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.

PropEst. LineWtd MedianOver % '25Over % 5yrGames
Courtland Sutton Rec TDs0.50.041%31%80
Courtland Sutton Rec Yds61.562.053%47%72
Courtland Sutton Receptions4.55.053%47%72
Bo Nix Pass Yds211.5216.053%59%32
Bo Nix Pass TDs1.51.035%44%32
Bo Nix Interceptions0.50.053%47%32
Bo Nix Rush Yds17.518.053%53%32
Troy Franklin Rec TDs0.50.029%22%32
Troy Franklin Rec Yds39.527.050%31%29
J.K. Dobbins Rush Att13.514.053%53%17
RJ Harvey Rush TDs0.50.029%29%17
RJ Harvey Rush Yds34.530.050%50%16
Evan Engram Rec Yds32.533.053%53%15
Evan Engram Receptions3.54.053%53%15
Pat Bryant Rec Yds31.532.055%55%11
J.K. Dobbins Rush Yds78.577.050%50%10

Build a Broncos parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.

FAQ

What are the best correlated props for a Denver Broncos same game parlay?

Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Broncos are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.

How often does the Broncos game total go Over?

Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 37 of 85 Broncos games (44%), and 7 of 17 (41%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.

Where do these numbers come from?

Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Broncos alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.

Keep exploring

Broncos player profiles: Courtland Sutton · Bo Nix · Troy Franklin · J.K. Dobbins · RJ Harvey · Evan Engram

AFC West rivals: Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders

Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money