Which Broncos props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Broncos averaged 23.6 points per game and the game total went Over in 7 of 17 games (41%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 44% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton Rec Yds | Courtland Sutton Receptions | +0.86 | 22 of 81 |
| Troy Franklin Rec Yds | Troy Franklin Receptions | +0.84 | 10 of 33 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey Rec TDs | Troy Franklin Rec TDs | +0.83 | 2 of 18 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.80 | 31 of 85 |
| DEN Points | Game Total Points | +0.65 | 26 of 85 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey Rec TDs | Bo Nix Pass TDs | +0.63 | 2 of 19 |
| DEN Points | Bo Nix Pass TDs | +0.61 | 13 of 34 |
| Game Total Points | RJ Harvey Rush TDs | +0.59 | 4 of 17 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix Rush Yds | RJ Harvey Rush TDs | -0.45 | 0 of 17 |
| Evan Engram Receptions | Troy Franklin Receptions | -0.46 | 4 of 16 |
| Troy Franklin Rec TDs | RJ Harvey Rec Yds | -0.47 | 0 of 17 |
| Evan Engram Rec Yds | Troy Franklin Receptions | -0.54 | 3 of 16 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN Points | 21.5 | 21.0 | 47% | 46% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 17.5 | 17.0 | 47% | 49% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 41.5 | 41.0 | 41% | 44% | 85 |
| Courtland Sutton Rec Yds | 61.5 | 61.0 | 53% | 44% | 81 |
| Courtland Sutton Receptions | 5.5 | 5.0 | 41% | 30% | 81 |
| Courtland Sutton Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 35% | 81 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. Rec Yds | 10.5 | 10.0 | 47% | 50% | 48 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 7% | 12% | 48 |
| Adam Trautman Rec Yds | 10.5 | 10.0 | 54% | 45% | 42 |
| Adam Trautman Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 8% | 14% | 42 |
| Bo Nix Pass Yds | 216.5 | 216.0 | 47% | 50% | 34 |
| Bo Nix Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 35% | 47% | 34 |
| Bo Nix Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 53% | 47% | 34 |
| Bo Nix Rush Yds | 20.5 | 20.0 | 41% | 50% | 34 |
| Bo Nix Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 24% | 34 |
| Troy Franklin Rec Yds | 21.5 | 21.0 | 59% | 45% | 33 |
| Troy Franklin Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 59% | 33% | 33 |
| Troy Franklin Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 21% | 33 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey Rec Yds | 12.5 | 12.0 | 60% | 47% | 30 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 20% | 17% | 30 |
| RJ Harvey Rush Yds | 30.5 | 30.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| RJ Harvey Rush Att | 7.5 | 7.0 | 41% | 41% | 17 |
| RJ Harvey Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| RJ Harvey Rec Yds | 18.5 | 18.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| RJ Harvey Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| Evan Engram Rec Yds | 29.5 | 29.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Evan Engram Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Pat Bryant Rec Yds | 31.5 | 31.0 | 46% | 46% | 13 |
| Pat Bryant Receptions | 2.5 | 2.0 | 38% | 38% | 13 |
| J.K. Dobbins Rush Yds | 77.5 | 77.0 | 50% | 50% | 10 |
| J.K. Dobbins Rush Att | 15.5 | 15.0 | 40% | 40% | 10 |
| J.K. Dobbins Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 40% | 40% | 10 |
Build a Broncos parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Broncos are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 37 of 85 Broncos games (44%), and 7 of 17 (41%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Broncos alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Broncos player profiles: Courtland Sutton · Marvin Mims Jr. · Adam Trautman · Bo Nix · Troy Franklin · Lil'Jordan Humphrey
AFC West rivals: Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money