Which Raiders props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Raiders averaged 14.2 points per game and the game total went Over in 8 of 17 games (47%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 47% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Mayer Rec Yds | Michael Mayer Receptions | +0.93 | 12 of 37 |
| Brock Bowers Rec Yds | Brock Bowers Receptions | +0.83 | 12 of 29 |
| LV Points | Game Total Points | +0.70 | 34 of 85 |
| Tre Tucker Rec TDs | Aidan O'Connell Pass TDs | +0.70 | 3 of 20 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.70 | 31 of 85 |
| LV Points | Aidan O'Connell Pass TDs | +0.66 | 5 of 21 |
| Game Total Points | Aidan O'Connell Pass TDs | +0.57 | 3 of 21 |
| LV Points | Ashton Jeanty Rec TDs | +0.47 | 3 of 17 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV Points | Aidan O'Connell Interceptions | -0.35 | 2 of 21 |
| Tre Tucker Rec Yds | Aidan O'Connell Interceptions | -0.37 | 1 of 20 |
| Opponent Points | Ashton Jeanty Rush Att | -0.54 | 2 of 17 |
| Opponent Points | Ashton Jeanty Rush TDs | -0.62 | 1 of 17 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV Points | 17.5 | 17.0 | 35% | 53% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 24.5 | 24.0 | 53% | 44% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 42.5 | 42.0 | 47% | 53% | 85 |
| Tre Tucker Rec Yds | 28.5 | 28.0 | 59% | 47% | 47 |
| Tre Tucker Receptions | 2.5 | 2.0 | 65% | 40% | 47 |
| Tre Tucker Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 15% | 47 |
| Michael Mayer Rec Yds | 13.5 | 13.0 | 54% | 49% | 37 |
| Michael Mayer Receptions | 2.5 | 2.0 | 54% | 35% | 37 |
| Michael Mayer Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 8% | 8% | 37 |
| Brock Bowers Rec Yds | 50.5 | 50.0 | 42% | 52% | 29 |
| Brock Bowers Receptions | 5.5 | 5.0 | 33% | 45% | 29 |
| Brock Bowers Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 33% | 31% | 29 |
| Aidan O'Connell Pass Yds | 214.5 | 214.0 | 0% | 48% | 21 |
| Aidan O'Connell Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0% | 29% | 21 |
| Aidan O'Connell Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0% | 43% | 21 |
| Ashton Jeanty Rush Yds | 50.5 | 50.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| Ashton Jeanty Rush Att | 16.5 | 16.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| Ashton Jeanty Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| Ashton Jeanty Rec Yds | 13.5 | 13.0 | 41% | 41% | 17 |
| Ashton Jeanty Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 24% | 17 |
Build a Raiders parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Raiders are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 40 of 85 Raiders games (47%), and 8 of 17 (47%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Raiders alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Raiders player profiles: Tre Tucker · Michael Mayer · Brock Bowers · Aidan O'Connell · Ashton Jeanty
AFC West rivals: Denver Broncos · Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Chargers
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money