Which Raiders props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Raiders averaged 14.2 points per game and the game total went Over in 8 of 17 games (47%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 47% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers Rec Yds | Brock Bowers Receptions | +0.83 | 14 of 27 |
| Ashton Jeanty Rush Yds | Ashton Jeanty Rush Att | +0.79 | 8 of 17 |
| Geno Smith Pass TDs | Brock Bowers Rec TDs | +0.69 | 4 of 17 |
| Geno Smith Pass TDs | Ashton Jeanty Rec Yds | +0.53 | 7 of 16 |
| Geno Smith Pass Yds | Tre Tucker Rec TDs | +0.50 | 3 of 15 |
| Geno Smith Pass Yds | Tre Tucker Rec Yds | +0.46 | 6 of 15 |
| Ashton Jeanty Rec Yds | Brock Bowers Rec TDs | +0.44 | 3 of 16 |
| Geno Smith Pass TDs | Tre Tucker Rec TDs | +0.38 | 3 of 17 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith Interceptions | Tre Tucker Rec TDs | -0.24 | 2 of 17 |
| Geno Smith Interceptions | Tre Tucker Rec Yds | -0.30 | 7 of 16 |
| Tre Tucker Receptions | Brock Bowers Rec Yds | -0.36 | 6 of 25 |
| Jakobi Meyers Rec Yds | Brock Bowers Receptions | -0.42 | 8 of 18 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 12% | 48 |
| Tre Tucker Rec Yds | 37.5 | 33.0 | 50% | 43% | 37 |
| Tre Tucker Receptions | 2.5 | 3.0 | 69% | 46% | 37 |
| Jakobi Meyers Rec Yds | 38.5 | 52.0 | 57% | 69% | 35 |
| Brock Bowers Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 25% | 32 |
| Michael Mayer Rec Yds | 21.5 | 14.0 | 55% | 40% | 30 |
| Brock Bowers Rec Yds | 45.5 | 49.0 | 58% | 63% | 27 |
| Brock Bowers Receptions | 4.5 | 5.0 | 67% | 67% | 27 |
| Geno Smith Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1.0 | 65% | 65% | 17 |
| Geno Smith Interceptions | 0.5 | 1.0 | 65% | 65% | 17 |
| Ashton Jeanty Rush Yds | 49.5 | 50.0 | 53% | 53% | 17 |
| Ashton Jeanty Rush Att | 15.5 | 16.0 | 53% | 53% | 17 |
| Ashton Jeanty Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| Ashton Jeanty Rec Yds | 12.5 | 13.0 | 56% | 56% | 16 |
| Geno Smith Pass Yds | 179.5 | 180.0 | 53% | 53% | 15 |
Build a Raiders parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Raiders are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 40 of 85 Raiders games (47%), and 8 of 17 (47%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Raiders alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Raiders player profiles: Tre Tucker · Jakobi Meyers · Brock Bowers · Michael Mayer · Geno Smith · Ashton Jeanty
AFC West rivals: Denver Broncos · Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Chargers
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money