Which Chargers props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Chargers averaged 21.6 points per game and the game total went Over in 7 of 17 games (41%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 44% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimani Vidal Rush Yds | Kimani Vidal Rush Att | +0.93 | 7 of 20 |
| Oronde Gadsden II Rec Yds | Oronde Gadsden II Receptions | +0.83 | 7 of 15 |
| Keenan Allen Rec Yds | Oronde Gadsden II Rec Yds | +0.73 | 5 of 15 |
| Ladd McConkey Receptions | Keenan Allen Rec Yds | +0.67 | 8 of 16 |
| Justin Herbert Pass TDs | Oronde Gadsden II Rec Yds | +0.62 | 4 of 15 |
| Justin Herbert Pass Yds | Keenan Allen Rec Yds | +0.54 | 27 of 51 |
| Justin Herbert Pass TDs | Oronde Gadsden II Receptions | +0.53 | 4 of 15 |
| Justin Herbert Pass Yds | Ladd McConkey Receptions | +0.50 | 13 of 30 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimani Vidal Rush Att | Quentin Johnston Rec Yds | -0.37 | 2 of 24 |
| Omarion Hampton Rush TDs | Ladd McConkey Receptions | -0.43 | 2 of 16 |
| Justin Herbert Interceptions | Ladd McConkey Rec Yds | -0.48 | 5 of 30 |
| Kimani Vidal Rush Att | Omarion Hampton Rush TDs | -0.49 | 1 of 17 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 47% | 46% | 80 |
| Justin Herbert Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 65% | 48% | 80 |
| Justin Herbert Pass Yds | 235.5 | 236.0 | 50% | 59% | 74 |
| Justin Herbert Rush Yds | 30.5 | 21.0 | 60% | 25% | 68 |
| Keenan Allen Rec Yds | 40.5 | 53.0 | 53% | 75% | 52 |
| Quentin Johnston Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 33% | 48 |
| Quentin Johnston Rec Yds | 70.5 | 42.0 | 50% | 21% | 39 |
| Kimani Vidal Rush Att | 4.5 | 4.0 | 59% | 44% | 32 |
| Ladd McConkey Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 31% | 32 |
| Ladd McConkey Rec Yds | 42.5 | 48.0 | 50% | 67% | 30 |
| Ladd McConkey Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 69% | 73% | 30 |
| Kimani Vidal Rush Yds | 32.5 | 20.0 | 50% | 35% | 20 |
| Omarion Hampton Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 24% | 17 |
| Oronde Gadsden II Rec Yds | 31.5 | 32.0 | 53% | 53% | 15 |
| Oronde Gadsden II Receptions | 2.5 | 3.0 | 53% | 53% | 15 |
| Kimani Vidal Rec Yds | 12.5 | 13.0 | 50% | 54% | 13 |
| Omarion Hampton Rush Yds | 55.5 | 56.0 | 56% | 56% | 9 |
Build a Chargers parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Chargers are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 37 of 85 Chargers games (44%), and 7 of 17 (41%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Chargers alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Chargers player profiles: Justin Herbert · Keenan Allen · Quentin Johnston · Kimani Vidal · Ladd McConkey · Omarion Hampton
AFC West rivals: Denver Broncos · Kansas City Chiefs · Las Vegas Raiders
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money