Which Chargers props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Chargers averaged 21.6 points per game and the game total went Over in 7 of 17 games (41%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 44% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimani Vidal Rush Yds | Kimani Vidal Rush Att | +0.93 | 8 of 22 |
| Quentin Johnston Rec Yds | Quentin Johnston Receptions | +0.84 | 15 of 45 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.73 | 35 of 85 |
| LAC Points | Justin Herbert Pass TDs | +0.68 | 36 of 80 |
| LAC Points | Game Total Points | +0.65 | 36 of 85 |
| Game Total Points | Oronde Gadsden II Rec Yds | +0.59 | 5 of 15 |
| Game Total Points | Justin Herbert Pass TDs | +0.58 | 35 of 80 |
| Game Total Points | Oronde Gadsden II Receptions | +0.52 | 5 of 15 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston Rec Yds | Kimani Vidal Rush Yds | -0.32 | 4 of 16 |
| Derius Davis Rec Yds | Kimani Vidal Rush Att | -0.33 | 2 of 15 |
| Opponent Points | Kimani Vidal Rush TDs | -0.41 | 0 of 22 |
| Justin Herbert Interceptions | Ladd McConkey Rec Yds | -0.50 | 5 of 32 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC Points | 23.5 | 23.0 | 47% | 51% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 20.5 | 20.0 | 35% | 49% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 41.5 | 41.0 | 47% | 55% | 85 |
| Justin Herbert Pass Yds | 237.5 | 237.0 | 44% | 55% | 80 |
| Justin Herbert Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 50% | 52% | 80 |
| Justin Herbert Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 69% | 50% | 80 |
| Justin Herbert Rush Yds | 18.5 | 18.0 | 75% | 38% | 80 |
| Justin Herbert Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 12% | 11% | 80 |
| Quentin Johnston Rec Yds | 40.5 | 40.0 | 62% | 42% | 45 |
| Quentin Johnston Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 62% | 38% | 45 |
| Quentin Johnston Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 54% | 36% | 45 |
| Derius Davis Rec Yds | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 47% | 43 |
| Ladd McConkey Rec Yds | 48.5 | 48.0 | 38% | 53% | 32 |
| Ladd McConkey Receptions | 5.5 | 5.0 | 25% | 31% | 32 |
| Ladd McConkey Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 38% | 34% | 32 |
| Kimani Vidal Rush Yds | 20.5 | 20.0 | 54% | 45% | 22 |
| Kimani Vidal Rush Att | 5.5 | 5.0 | 62% | 45% | 22 |
| Kimani Vidal Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 23% | 14% | 22 |
| Tre Harris Rec Yds | 18.5 | 18.0 | 44% | 44% | 16 |
| Oronde Gadsden II Rec Yds | 32.5 | 32.0 | 47% | 47% | 15 |
| Oronde Gadsden II Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 40% | 40% | 15 |
| Oronde Gadsden II Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 20% | 20% | 15 |
| Omarion Hampton Rush Yds | 56.5 | 56.0 | 44% | 44% | 9 |
| Omarion Hampton Rush Att | 14.5 | 14.0 | 44% | 44% | 9 |
| Omarion Hampton Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 44% | 44% | 9 |
| Omarion Hampton Rec Yds | 13.5 | 13.0 | 44% | 44% | 9 |
Build a Chargers parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Chargers are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 37 of 85 Chargers games (44%), and 7 of 17 (41%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Chargers alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Chargers player profiles: Justin Herbert · Quentin Johnston · Derius Davis · Ladd McConkey · Kimani Vidal · Tre Harris
AFC West rivals: Denver Broncos · Kansas City Chiefs · Las Vegas Raiders
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money