Justin Herbert (QB, Los Angeles Chargers) — every number below comes from real box scores across the 2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted, with sample sizes shown. Estimated lines are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines.
| Market | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yds | 237.5 | 237.0 | 44% | 55% | 80 |
| Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 50% | 52% | 80 |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 69% | 50% | 80 |
| Rush Yds | 18.5 | 18.0 | 75% | 38% | 80 |
| Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 12% | 11% | 80 |
Props that historically rise and fall with Justin Herbert's production — the raw material of a coherent same game parlay.
| Partner Prop | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|
| LAC Points | +0.68 | 36 of 80 |
| Game Total Points | +0.58 | 35 of 80 |
| Quentin Johnston Rec TDs | +0.51 | 11 of 41 |
| Ladd McConkey Receptions | +0.50 | 7 of 32 |
| Ladd McConkey Rec Yds | +0.42 | 10 of 32 |
| Tre Harris Rec Yds | +0.40 | 1 of 15 |
Stack Justin Herbert in the Parlay Architect →
The table above shows the over rate against a trailing-median line for each market, in 2025 and across the full five-season sample. Rates near 50% are expected — lines track production. What matters for an SGP is which legs move together.
Historically, LAC Points — see the chemistry table. Positive chemistry means the props tend to go Over in the same games.
More Chargers: Los Angeles Chargers SGP page · Guides: QB-WR stacking · Player props 101