Which Bills props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 84 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Bills averaged 28.3 points per game and the game total went Over in 9 of 17 games (53%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 48% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir Rec Yds | Khalil Shakir Receptions | +0.77 | 16 of 48 |
| James Cook Rush Yds | James Cook Rush Att | +0.75 | 8 of 60 |
| Josh Allen Pass Yds | Keon Coleman Rec Yds | +0.67 | 5 of 21 |
| Khalil Shakir Rec Yds | Keon Coleman Rec Yds | +0.50 | 7 of 20 |
| James Cook Rec Yds | Keon Coleman Rec Yds | +0.49 | 7 of 16 |
| Khalil Shakir Receptions | Keon Coleman Rec Yds | +0.49 | 7 of 20 |
| Josh Allen Pass TDs | James Cook Rec Yds | +0.40 | 19 of 47 |
| Dalton Kincaid Rec TDs | Dawson Knox Rec Yds | +0.40 | 3 of 36 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook Rush Att | Keon Coleman Rec Yds | -0.31 | 5 of 22 |
| Josh Allen Pass Yds | James Cook Rush Att | -0.37 | 4 of 61 |
| James Cook Rush Yds | Keon Coleman Rec Yds | -0.38 | 4 of 21 |
| Josh Allen Pass Yds | James Cook Rush Yds | -0.58 | 4 of 59 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2.0 | 53% | 59% | 79 |
| Josh Allen Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 53% | 79 |
| Josh Allen Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 47% | 47% | 79 |
| Dawson Knox Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 20% | 79 |
| Josh Allen Pass Yds | 250.5 | 251.0 | 50% | 52% | 77 |
| Josh Allen Rush Yds | 37.5 | 35.0 | 50% | 52% | 77 |
| James Cook Rush Att | 17.5 | 15.0 | 53% | 22% | 63 |
| Dawson Knox Rec Yds | 22.5 | 23.0 | 53% | 57% | 61 |
| James Cook Rush Yds | 106.5 | 74.0 | 53% | 23% | 60 |
| Dalton Kincaid Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 19% | 48 |
| Khalil Shakir Rec Yds | 44.5 | 45.0 | 50% | 48% | 48 |
| Khalil Shakir Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 56% | 40% | 48 |
| James Cook Rec Yds | 16.5 | 18.0 | 54% | 62% | 47 |
| Dalton Kincaid Rec Yds | 40.5 | 38.0 | 55% | 49% | 37 |
| Dalton Kincaid Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 55% | 65% | 37 |
| Keon Coleman Rec Yds | 25.5 | 26.0 | 50% | 59% | 22 |
Build a Bills parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 84 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Bills are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 40 of 84 Bills games (48%), and 9 of 17 (53%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 84 games for the Bills alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Bills player profiles: Josh Allen · Dawson Knox · James Cook · Dalton Kincaid · Khalil Shakir · Keon Coleman
AFC East rivals: Miami Dolphins · New England Patriots · New York Jets
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money