Which Bills props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 84 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Bills averaged 28.3 points per game and the game total went Over in 9 of 17 games (53%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 48% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Davis Rush Yds | Ray Davis Rush Att | +0.91 | 17 of 34 |
| Khalil Shakir Rec Yds | Khalil Shakir Receptions | +0.80 | 17 of 57 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.73 | 20 of 84 |
| BUF Points | Game Total Points | +0.72 | 25 of 84 |
| Josh Allen Pass Yds | Keon Coleman Rec Yds | +0.68 | 5 of 23 |
| Ty Johnson Rush Att | Ray Davis Rush Yds | +0.67 | 10 of 34 |
| Ty Johnson Rush Att | Ray Davis Rush Att | +0.57 | 9 of 34 |
| BUF Points | Josh Allen Pass TDs | +0.54 | 20 of 82 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Johnson Rec TDs | James Cook Rush Yds | -0.43 | 0 of 42 |
| Opponent Points | Ray Davis Rush Yds | -0.49 | 5 of 34 |
| Opponent Points | Ray Davis Rush Att | -0.50 | 4 of 34 |
| Josh Allen Pass Yds | James Cook Rush Yds | -0.56 | 8 of 64 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF Points | 30.5 | 30.0 | 47% | 46% | 84 |
| Opponent Points | 21.5 | 21.0 | 47% | 37% | 84 |
| Game Total Points | 45.5 | 45.0 | 47% | 44% | 84 |
| Josh Allen Pass Yds | 249.5 | 249.0 | 50% | 51% | 82 |
| Josh Allen Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2.0 | 25% | 27% | 82 |
| Josh Allen Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 44% | 55% | 82 |
| Josh Allen Rush Yds | 35.5 | 35.0 | 50% | 54% | 82 |
| Josh Allen Rush TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 31% | 16% | 82 |
| Dawson Knox Rec Yds | 22.5 | 22.0 | 50% | 53% | 70 |
| Dawson Knox Receptions | 2.5 | 2.0 | 38% | 46% | 70 |
| Dawson Knox Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 19% | 27% | 70 |
| James Cook Rush Yds | 73.5 | 73.0 | 71% | 38% | 66 |
| James Cook Rush Att | 15.5 | 15.0 | 76% | 35% | 66 |
| James Cook Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 47% | 36% | 66 |
| James Cook Rec Yds | 13.5 | 13.0 | 41% | 48% | 66 |
| James Cook Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 12% | 14% | 66 |
| Khalil Shakir Rec Yds | 43.5 | 43.0 | 50% | 42% | 57 |
| Khalil Shakir Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 56% | 35% | 57 |
| Khalil Shakir Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25% | 19% | 57 |
| Ty Johnson Rush Yds | 10.5 | 10.0 | 41% | 49% | 43 |
| Ty Johnson Rush Att | 2.5 | 2.0 | 35% | 44% | 43 |
| Ty Johnson Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 9% | 43 |
| Ty Johnson Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 12% | 14% | 43 |
| Dalton Kincaid Rec Yds | 37.5 | 37.0 | 50% | 49% | 41 |
| Dalton Kincaid Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 25% | 34% | 41 |
| Dalton Kincaid Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 42% | 22% | 41 |
| Ray Davis Rush Yds | 6.5 | 6.0 | 29% | 56% | 34 |
| Ray Davis Rush Att | 3.5 | 3.0 | 24% | 50% | 34 |
| Ray Davis Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0% | 9% | 34 |
| Ray Davis Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 12% | 15% | 34 |
| Keon Coleman Rec Yds | 26.5 | 26.0 | 42% | 52% | 25 |
| Keon Coleman Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 17% | 20% | 25 |
| Keon Coleman Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 33% | 32% | 25 |
| Josh Palmer Rec Yds | 17.5 | 17.0 | 50% | 50% | 12 |
Build a Bills parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 84 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Bills are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 40 of 84 Bills games (48%), and 9 of 17 (53%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 84 games for the Bills alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Bills player profiles: Josh Allen · Dawson Knox · James Cook · Khalil Shakir · Ty Johnson · Dalton Kincaid
AFC East rivals: Miami Dolphins · New England Patriots · New York Jets
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money