Which Patriots props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Patriots averaged 28.8 points per game and the game total went Over in 11 of 17 games (65%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 54% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs Rec Yds | Stefon Diggs Receptions | +0.93 | 8 of 17 |
| Hunter Henry Rec Yds | Hunter Henry Receptions | +0.84 | 22 of 72 |
| Drake Maye Pass TDs | Hunter Henry Rec TDs | +0.47 | 7 of 32 |
| Drake Maye Pass TDs | Kayshon Boutte Rec TDs | +0.45 | 7 of 32 |
| Drake Maye Pass TDs | Kayshon Boutte Rec Yds | +0.38 | 8 of 26 |
| TreVeyon Henderson Rush Att | DeMario Douglas Rec Yds | +0.35 | 6 of 15 |
| Drake Maye Pass Yds | Stefon Diggs Receptions | +0.34 | 5 of 17 |
| Drake Maye Interceptions | TreVeyon Henderson Rush Yds | +0.34 | 5 of 17 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kayshon Boutte Rec TDs | Stefon Diggs Rec Yds | -0.39 | 1 of 17 |
| Drake Maye Rush Yds | Stefon Diggs Rec Yds | -0.41 | 4 of 17 |
| Stefon Diggs Receptions | DeMario Douglas Rec Yds | -0.42 | 2 of 15 |
| Drake Maye Pass Yds | TreVeyon Henderson Rush TDs | -0.47 | 2 of 17 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 28% | 80 |
| Hunter Henry Rec Yds | 44.5 | 39.0 | 53% | 36% | 72 |
| Hunter Henry Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 53% | 43% | 72 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson Rush Yds | 39.5 | 47.0 | 50% | 58% | 65 |
| Kayshon Boutte Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 15% | 48 |
| DeMario Douglas Rec Yds | 28.5 | 33.0 | 53% | 60% | 42 |
| Drake Maye Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2.0 | 65% | 47% | 32 |
| Drake Maye Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 47% | 50% | 32 |
| Drake Maye Pass Yds | 267.5 | 259.0 | 53% | 39% | 28 |
| Drake Maye Rush Yds | 21.5 | 25.0 | 59% | 64% | 28 |
| Kayshon Boutte Rec Yds | 29.5 | 33.0 | 54% | 54% | 28 |
| Austin Hooper Rec Yds | 23.5 | 24.0 | 50% | 52% | 27 |
| TreVeyon Henderson Rush Yds | 52.5 | 53.0 | 53% | 53% | 17 |
| TreVeyon Henderson Rush Att | 10.5 | 11.0 | 53% | 53% | 17 |
| TreVeyon Henderson Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| Stefon Diggs Rec Yds | 42.5 | 43.0 | 53% | 53% | 17 |
| Stefon Diggs Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 53% | 53% | 17 |
| Mack Hollins Rec Yds | 29.5 | 28.0 | 50% | 50% | 14 |
| TreVeyon Henderson Rec Yds | 14.5 | 15.0 | 54% | 54% | 13 |
Build a Patriots parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Patriots are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 46 of 85 Patriots games (54%), and 11 of 17 (65%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Patriots alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Patriots player profiles: Hunter Henry · Rhamondre Stevenson · Kayshon Boutte · DeMario Douglas · Drake Maye · Austin Hooper
AFC East rivals: Buffalo Bills · Miami Dolphins · New York Jets
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money