Which Patriots props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Patriots averaged 28.8 points per game and the game total went Over in 11 of 17 games (65%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 54% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry Rec Yds | Hunter Henry Receptions | +0.85 | 26 of 78 |
| NE Points | Game Total Points | +0.66 | 27 of 85 |
| TreVeyon Henderson Rush Yds | TreVeyon Henderson Rush Att | +0.66 | 6 of 17 |
| Game Total Points | Drake Maye Rush TDs | +0.57 | 5 of 30 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.54 | 28 of 85 |
| Hunter Henry Rec TDs | Drake Maye Pass TDs | +0.44 | 3 of 29 |
| NE Points | Drake Maye Pass TDs | +0.43 | 3 of 30 |
| Game Total Points | TreVeyon Henderson Rush Yds | +0.40 | 6 of 17 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas Receptions | Drake Maye Rush TDs | -0.39 | 0 of 29 |
| Drake Maye Rush Yds | TreVeyon Henderson Rec Yds | -0.42 | 2 of 17 |
| NE Points | DeMario Douglas Receptions | -0.46 | 4 of 46 |
| Drake Maye Pass Yds | TreVeyon Henderson Rush TDs | -0.47 | 2 of 17 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE Points | 23.5 | 23.0 | 82% | 44% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 21.5 | 21.0 | 29% | 48% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 45.5 | 45.0 | 59% | 45% | 85 |
| Hunter Henry Rec Yds | 39.5 | 39.0 | 53% | 42% | 78 |
| Hunter Henry Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 53% | 44% | 78 |
| Hunter Henry Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 28% | 78 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson Rush Yds | 46.5 | 46.0 | 43% | 50% | 70 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson Rush Att | 10.5 | 10.0 | 36% | 51% | 70 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 36% | 31% | 70 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson Rec Yds | 13.5 | 13.0 | 57% | 46% | 70 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 14% | 6% | 70 |
| DeMario Douglas Rec Yds | 33.5 | 33.0 | 38% | 48% | 46 |
| DeMario Douglas Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 6% | 39% | 46 |
| DeMario Douglas Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 19% | 13% | 46 |
| Drake Maye Pass Yds | 259.5 | 259.0 | 59% | 43% | 30 |
| Drake Maye Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2.0 | 18% | 13% | 30 |
| Drake Maye Interceptions | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0% | 7% | 30 |
| Drake Maye Rush Yds | 25.5 | 25.0 | 41% | 50% | 30 |
| Drake Maye Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 17% | 30 |
| TreVeyon Henderson Rush Yds | 53.5 | 53.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| TreVeyon Henderson Rush Att | 11.5 | 11.0 | 41% | 41% | 17 |
| TreVeyon Henderson Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| TreVeyon Henderson Rec Yds | 13.5 | 13.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| Mack Hollins Rec Yds | 28.5 | 28.0 | 50% | 50% | 14 |
| Mack Hollins Receptions | 2.5 | 2.0 | 50% | 50% | 14 |
Build a Patriots parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Patriots are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 46 of 85 Patriots games (54%), and 11 of 17 (65%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Patriots alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Patriots player profiles: Hunter Henry · Rhamondre Stevenson · DeMario Douglas · Drake Maye · TreVeyon Henderson · Mack Hollins
AFC East rivals: Buffalo Bills · Miami Dolphins · New York Jets
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money