Which Dolphins props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Dolphins averaged 20.4 points per game and the game total went Over in 10 of 17 games (59%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 49% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle Rec Yds | Jaylen Waddle Receptions | +0.75 | 29 of 71 |
| De'Von Achane Rush Yds | De'Von Achane Rush Att | +0.70 | 10 of 41 |
| Tua Tagovailoa Pass TDs | Jaylen Waddle Rec TDs | +0.58 | 15 of 80 |
| Tua Tagovailoa Pass Yds | Jaylen Waddle Rec Yds | +0.45 | 35 of 60 |
| Tua Tagovailoa Pass TDs | Jaylen Waddle Rec Yds | +0.42 | 20 of 71 |
| Tua Tagovailoa Pass Yds | Jaylen Waddle Receptions | +0.37 | 26 of 60 |
| Tua Tagovailoa Pass TDs | Darren Waller Rec TDs | +0.36 | 3 of 17 |
| Tua Tagovailoa Pass Yds | De'Von Achane Rec Yds | +0.34 | 16 of 34 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa Interceptions | Jaylen Wright Rush Yds | -0.38 | 0 of 21 |
| De'Von Achane Rush Att | Jaylen Wright Rush Yds | -0.40 | 4 of 21 |
| Tua Tagovailoa Pass Yds | De'Von Achane Rush Yds | -0.41 | 8 of 35 |
| De'Von Achane Rec Yds | Jaylen Wright Rush Yds | -0.62 | 1 of 19 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 41% | 39% | 80 |
| Tua Tagovailoa Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 53% | 40% | 80 |
| Jaylen Waddle Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 26% | 80 |
| Jaylen Waddle Rec Yds | 51.5 | 53.0 | 53% | 59% | 71 |
| Jaylen Waddle Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 60% | 48% | 71 |
| Tua Tagovailoa Pass Yds | 176.5 | 231.0 | 50% | 82% | 65 |
| De'Von Achane Rush Att | 13.5 | 12.0 | 53% | 35% | 48 |
| De'Von Achane Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 31% | 48 |
| De'Von Achane Rush Yds | 81.5 | 67.0 | 50% | 37% | 41 |
| De'Von Achane Rec Yds | 28.5 | 29.0 | 53% | 52% | 40 |
| Jaylen Wright Rush Yds | 22.5 | 18.0 | 56% | 43% | 21 |
| Darren Waller Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 24% | 17 |
| Greg Dulcich Rec Yds | 40.5 | 41.0 | 56% | 56% | 9 |
| Greg Dulcich Receptions | 2.5 | 3.0 | 56% | 56% | 9 |
Build a Dolphins parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Dolphins are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 42 of 85 Dolphins games (49%), and 10 of 17 (59%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Dolphins alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Dolphins player profiles: Tua Tagovailoa · Jaylen Waddle · De'Von Achane · Jaylen Wright · Darren Waller · Greg Dulcich
AFC East rivals: Buffalo Bills · New England Patriots · New York Jets
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money