Which Buccaneers props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Buccaneers averaged 22.4 points per game and the game total went Over in 8 of 17 games (47%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 48% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka Rec Yds | Emeka Egbuka Receptions | +0.81 | 9 of 17 |
| Cade Otton Rec Yds | Cade Otton Receptions | +0.81 | 21 of 53 |
| Baker Mayfield Pass TDs | Emeka Egbuka Rec TDs | +0.75 | 5 of 17 |
| Baker Mayfield Pass Yds | Emeka Egbuka Rec Yds | +0.56 | 6 of 17 |
| Baker Mayfield Pass Yds | Emeka Egbuka Receptions | +0.48 | 7 of 17 |
| Baker Mayfield Pass TDs | Chris Godwin Jr. Rec Yds | +0.46 | 17 of 31 |
| Baker Mayfield Pass TDs | Emeka Egbuka Rec Yds | +0.45 | 5 of 17 |
| Bucky Irving Rush Yds | Mike Evans Rec Yds | +0.42 | 7 of 19 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Tucker Rush TDs | Emeka Egbuka Rec TDs | -0.41 | 0 of 17 |
| Baker Mayfield Interceptions | Emeka Egbuka Rec TDs | -0.42 | 1 of 17 |
| Baker Mayfield Rush Yds | Mike Evans Rec Yds | -0.43 | 8 of 34 |
| Bucky Irving Rush Att | Tez Johnson Rec TDs | -0.57 | 0 of 17 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans Rec Yds | 33.5 | 59.0 | 57% | 83% | 63 |
| Rachaad White Rush Yds | 37.5 | 38.0 | 53% | 53% | 60 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. Rec Yds | 25.5 | 55.0 | 67% | 91% | 57 |
| Cade Otton Rec Yds | 32.5 | 30.0 | 50% | 47% | 53 |
| Cade Otton Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 57% | 49% | 53 |
| Baker Mayfield Pass Yds | 214.5 | 233.0 | 53% | 60% | 48 |
| Baker Mayfield Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2.0 | 47% | 58% | 48 |
| Baker Mayfield Interceptions | 0.5 | 1.0 | 53% | 56% | 48 |
| Sean Tucker Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 17% | 48 |
| Baker Mayfield Rush Yds | 30.5 | 19.0 | 50% | 27% | 44 |
| Bucky Irving Rush Att | 13.5 | 10.0 | 53% | 41% | 32 |
| Bucky Irving Rush Yds | 62.5 | 62.0 | 50% | 48% | 25 |
| Sterling Shepard Rec Yds | 23.5 | 20.0 | 54% | 44% | 25 |
| Bucky Irving Rec Yds | 19.5 | 15.0 | 56% | 48% | 23 |
| Emeka Egbuka Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| Tez Johnson Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 24% | 17 |
| Emeka Egbuka Rec Yds | 39.5 | 40.0 | 59% | 59% | 17 |
| Emeka Egbuka Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 59% | 59% | 17 |
Build a Buccaneers parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Buccaneers are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 41 of 85 Buccaneers games (48%), and 8 of 17 (47%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Buccaneers alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Buccaneers player profiles: Mike Evans · Rachaad White · Chris Godwin Jr. · Cade Otton · Baker Mayfield · Sean Tucker
NFC South rivals: Atlanta Falcons · Carolina Panthers · New Orleans Saints
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money