Which Buccaneers props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Buccaneers averaged 22.4 points per game and the game total went Over in 8 of 17 games (47%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 48% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen McMillan Rec Yds | Jalen McMillan Receptions | +0.92 | 7 of 17 |
| Sean Tucker Rush Yds | Sean Tucker Rush Att | +0.87 | 13 of 37 |
| TB Points | Game Total Points | +0.76 | 34 of 85 |
| Baker Mayfield Pass TDs | Emeka Egbuka Rec TDs | +0.75 | 2 of 17 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.74 | 28 of 85 |
| TB Points | Baker Mayfield Pass TDs | +0.63 | 10 of 51 |
| Game Total Points | Emeka Egbuka Receptions | +0.62 | 4 of 17 |
| Baker Mayfield Pass TDs | Jalen McMillan Rec TDs | +0.61 | 4 of 17 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield Interceptions | Emeka Egbuka Rec TDs | -0.42 | 0 of 17 |
| Sean Tucker Rush TDs | Jalen McMillan Receptions | -0.44 | 0 of 17 |
| Baker Mayfield Rush Yds | Tez Johnson Rec TDs | -0.48 | 1 of 15 |
| Baker Mayfield Rush Yds | Tez Johnson Rec Yds | -0.66 | 1 of 15 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB Points | 23.5 | 23.0 | 35% | 49% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 23.5 | 23.0 | 53% | 42% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 44.5 | 44.0 | 41% | 47% | 85 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. Rec Yds | 55.5 | 55.0 | 22% | 56% | 62 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. Receptions | 5.5 | 5.0 | 11% | 60% | 62 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 22% | 26% | 62 |
| Cade Otton Rec Yds | 28.5 | 28.0 | 47% | 45% | 62 |
| Cade Otton Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 53% | 42% | 62 |
| Cade Otton Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 7% | 15% | 62 |
| Baker Mayfield Pass Yds | 233.5 | 233.0 | 35% | 53% | 51 |
| Baker Mayfield Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2.0 | 12% | 24% | 51 |
| Baker Mayfield Interceptions | 1.5 | 1.0 | 12% | 16% | 51 |
| Baker Mayfield Rush Yds | 16.5 | 16.0 | 53% | 45% | 51 |
| Baker Mayfield Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 6% | 10% | 51 |
| Sean Tucker Rush Yds | 4.5 | 4.0 | 47% | 46% | 37 |
| Sean Tucker Rush Att | 3.5 | 3.0 | 53% | 43% | 37 |
| Sean Tucker Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 22% | 37 |
| Bucky Irving Rush Yds | 63.5 | 63.0 | 40% | 48% | 27 |
| Bucky Irving Rush Att | 15.5 | 15.0 | 60% | 37% | 27 |
| Bucky Irving Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 10% | 33% | 27 |
| Bucky Irving Rec Yds | 14.5 | 14.0 | 50% | 48% | 27 |
| Bucky Irving Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 30% | 11% | 27 |
| Jalen McMillan Rec Yds | 32.5 | 32.0 | 50% | 47% | 17 |
| Jalen McMillan Receptions | 2.5 | 2.0 | 25% | 47% | 17 |
| Jalen McMillan Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0% | 35% | 17 |
| Emeka Egbuka Rec Yds | 40.5 | 40.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| Emeka Egbuka Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 24% | 24% | 17 |
| Emeka Egbuka Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| Tez Johnson Rec Yds | 17.5 | 17.0 | 47% | 47% | 15 |
| Tez Johnson Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 27% | 27% | 15 |
Build a Buccaneers parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Buccaneers are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 41 of 85 Buccaneers games (48%), and 8 of 17 (47%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Buccaneers alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Buccaneers player profiles: Chris Godwin Jr. · Cade Otton · Baker Mayfield · Sean Tucker · Bucky Irving · Jalen McMillan
NFC South rivals: Atlanta Falcons · Carolina Panthers · New Orleans Saints
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money