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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Same Game Parlay: Correlated Props & Hit Rates

Which Buccaneers props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.

In 2025 the Buccaneers averaged 22.4 points per game and the game total went Over in 8 of 17 games (47%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 48% of the time.

The signature stack: Baker Mayfield Pass Yds + Mike Evans Rec Yds have a chemistry of +0.30 — both went Over their typical lines together in 20 of 35 shared games. Why QB-WR stacks work →

Props that win together (Buccaneers chemistry pairs)

Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.

Leg ALeg BChemistryBoth Over
Emeka Egbuka Rec YdsEmeka Egbuka Receptions+0.819 of 17
Cade Otton Rec YdsCade Otton Receptions+0.8121 of 53
Baker Mayfield Pass TDsEmeka Egbuka Rec TDs+0.755 of 17
Baker Mayfield Pass YdsEmeka Egbuka Rec Yds+0.566 of 17
Baker Mayfield Pass YdsEmeka Egbuka Receptions+0.487 of 17
Baker Mayfield Pass TDsChris Godwin Jr. Rec Yds+0.4617 of 31
Baker Mayfield Pass TDsEmeka Egbuka Rec Yds+0.455 of 17
Bucky Irving Rush YdsMike Evans Rec Yds+0.427 of 19

Legs that fight (or: Under candidates)

Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →

Leg ALeg BChemistryBoth Over
Sean Tucker Rush TDsEmeka Egbuka Rec TDs-0.410 of 17
Baker Mayfield InterceptionsEmeka Egbuka Rec TDs-0.421 of 17
Baker Mayfield Rush YdsMike Evans Rec Yds-0.438 of 34
Bucky Irving Rush AttTez Johnson Rec TDs-0.570 of 17

Buccaneers player prop hit rates

Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.

PropEst. LineWtd MedianOver % '25Over % 5yrGames
Mike Evans Rec Yds33.559.057%83%63
Rachaad White Rush Yds37.538.053%53%60
Chris Godwin Jr. Rec Yds25.555.067%91%57
Cade Otton Rec Yds32.530.050%47%53
Cade Otton Receptions3.54.057%49%53
Baker Mayfield Pass Yds214.5233.053%60%48
Baker Mayfield Pass TDs1.52.047%58%48
Baker Mayfield Interceptions0.51.053%56%48
Sean Tucker Rush TDs0.50.035%17%48
Baker Mayfield Rush Yds30.519.050%27%44
Bucky Irving Rush Att13.510.053%41%32
Bucky Irving Rush Yds62.562.050%48%25
Sterling Shepard Rec Yds23.520.054%44%25
Bucky Irving Rec Yds19.515.056%48%23
Emeka Egbuka Rec TDs0.50.029%29%17
Tez Johnson Rec TDs0.50.024%24%17
Emeka Egbuka Rec Yds39.540.059%59%17
Emeka Egbuka Receptions3.54.059%59%17

Build a Buccaneers parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.

FAQ

What are the best correlated props for a Tampa Bay Buccaneers same game parlay?

Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Buccaneers are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.

How often does the Buccaneers game total go Over?

Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 41 of 85 Buccaneers games (48%), and 8 of 17 (47%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.

Where do these numbers come from?

Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Buccaneers alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.

Keep exploring

Buccaneers player profiles: Mike Evans · Rachaad White · Chris Godwin Jr. · Cade Otton · Baker Mayfield · Sean Tucker

NFC South rivals: Atlanta Falcons · Carolina Panthers · New Orleans Saints

Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money