Which Falcons props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Falcons averaged 20.8 points per game and the game total went Over in 8 of 17 games (47%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 42% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London Rec Yds | Drake London Receptions | +0.89 | 13 of 55 |
| Kyle Pitts Rec Yds | Kyle Pitts Receptions | +0.81 | 19 of 72 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Pass TDs | Drake London Rec TDs | +0.69 | 4 of 32 |
| Bijan Robinson Rec Yds | Kyle Pitts Rec TDs | +0.49 | 8 of 46 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Pass TDs | Drake London Receptions | +0.46 | 5 of 27 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Pass TDs | Drake London Rec Yds | +0.44 | 4 of 27 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Pass TDs | Bijan Robinson Rec Yds | +0.40 | 5 of 32 |
| Bijan Robinson Rec Yds | Kyle Pitts Receptions | +0.37 | 7 of 44 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. Pass TDs | Bijan Robinson Rush Att | -0.25 | 3 of 32 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Pass TDs | Darnell Mooney Rec Yds | -0.26 | 1 of 29 |
| Tyler Allgeier Rush Yds | Kyle Pitts Receptions | -0.27 | 8 of 54 |
| Darnell Mooney Rec Yds | Kyle Pitts Receptions | -0.31 | 6 of 27 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 14% | 80 |
| Kyle Pitts Rec Yds | 56.5 | 43.0 | 53% | 38% | 72 |
| Kyle Pitts Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 53% | 28% | 72 |
| Tyler Allgeier Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 23% | 64 |
| Drake London Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 28% | 64 |
| Tyler Allgeier Rush Yds | 22.5 | 32.0 | 53% | 72% | 60 |
| Drake London Rec Yds | 77.5 | 59.0 | 50% | 27% | 55 |
| Drake London Receptions | 5.5 | 5.0 | 50% | 40% | 55 |
| Bijan Robinson Rush Yds | 75.5 | 75.0 | 53% | 46% | 48 |
| Bijan Robinson Rush Att | 16.5 | 16.0 | 53% | 42% | 48 |
| Bijan Robinson Rec Yds | 38.5 | 34.0 | 59% | 41% | 46 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Pass TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 19% | 32 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 12% | 9% | 32 |
| Darnell Mooney Rec Yds | 23.5 | 34.0 | 53% | 69% | 29 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Pass Yds | 220.5 | 202.0 | 56% | 42% | 12 |
Build a Falcons parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Falcons are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 36 of 85 Falcons games (42%), and 8 of 17 (47%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Falcons alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Falcons player profiles: Kyle Pitts · Tyler Allgeier · Drake London · Bijan Robinson · Michael Penix Jr. · Darnell Mooney
NFC South rivals: Carolina Panthers · New Orleans Saints · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money