Which Falcons props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Falcons averaged 20.8 points per game and the game total went Over in 8 of 17 games (47%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 42% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London Rec Yds | Drake London Receptions | +0.89 | 23 of 62 |
| Kyle Pitts Rec Yds | Kyle Pitts Receptions | +0.83 | 20 of 78 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.71 | 29 of 85 |
| ATL Points | Game Total Points | +0.67 | 29 of 85 |
| ATL Points | Bijan Robinson Rush TDs | +0.45 | 12 of 51 |
| Kyle Pitts Rec TDs | Bijan Robinson Rec Yds | +0.43 | 8 of 51 |
| Game Total Points | Drake London Rec Yds | +0.43 | 16 of 62 |
| Drake London Rec Yds | Bijan Robinson Rush TDs | +0.42 | 13 of 45 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London Rec TDs | Bijan Robinson Rec TDs | -0.34 | 0 of 45 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus Receptions | Kyle Pitts Rec Yds | -0.41 | 2 of 25 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus Rec Yds | Drake London Receptions | -0.41 | 1 of 16 |
| Drake London Rec Yds | Bijan Robinson Rec TDs | -0.41 | 2 of 45 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Points | 23.5 | 23.0 | 53% | 42% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 24.5 | 24.0 | 47% | 44% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 44.5 | 44.0 | 53% | 48% | 85 |
| Kyle Pitts Rec Yds | 39.5 | 39.0 | 53% | 50% | 78 |
| Kyle Pitts Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 53% | 26% | 78 |
| Kyle Pitts Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 15% | 78 |
| Drake London Rec Yds | 59.5 | 59.0 | 50% | 45% | 62 |
| Drake London Receptions | 5.5 | 5.0 | 50% | 42% | 62 |
| Drake London Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 42% | 31% | 62 |
| Bijan Robinson Rush Yds | 76.5 | 76.0 | 47% | 45% | 51 |
| Bijan Robinson Rush Att | 16.5 | 16.0 | 53% | 43% | 51 |
| Bijan Robinson Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 37% | 51 |
| Bijan Robinson Rec Yds | 33.5 | 33.0 | 71% | 43% | 51 |
| Bijan Robinson Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 18% | 51 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus Rec Yds | 31.5 | 31.0 | — | 45% | 31 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus Receptions | 2.5 | 2.0 | — | 35% | 31 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 16% | 31 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Pass Yds | 221.5 | 221.0 | 44% | 43% | 14 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 22% | 21% | 14 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 22% | 36% | 14 |
| Michael Penix Jr. Rush Yds | 5.5 | 5.0 | 67% | 43% | 14 |
Build a Falcons parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Falcons are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 36 of 85 Falcons games (42%), and 8 of 17 (47%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Falcons alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Falcons player profiles: Kyle Pitts · Drake London · Bijan Robinson · Olamide Zaccheaus · Michael Penix Jr.
NFC South rivals: Carolina Panthers · New Orleans Saints · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money