Which Saints props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Saints averaged 18.0 points per game and the game total went Over in 5 of 17 games (29%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 36% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara Rush Yds | Alvin Kamara Rush Att | +0.90 | 46 of 62 |
| Chris Olave Rec Yds | Chris Olave Receptions | +0.71 | 19 of 52 |
| Tyler Shough Pass TDs | Chris Olave Rec Yds | +0.43 | 4 of 16 |
| Chris Olave Rec TDs | Juwan Johnson Rec Yds | +0.43 | 4 of 52 |
| Tyler Shough Pass TDs | Juwan Johnson Rec Yds | +0.43 | 4 of 17 |
| Tyler Shough Pass TDs | Chris Olave Rec TDs | +0.41 | 5 of 17 |
| Chris Olave Receptions | Juwan Johnson Receptions | +0.38 | 12 of 42 |
| Chris Olave Rec Yds | Juwan Johnson Rec Yds | +0.37 | 5 of 42 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed Rec Yds | Juwan Johnson Rec Yds | -0.39 | 3 of 27 |
| Tyler Shough Interceptions | Chris Olave Rec Yds | -0.40 | 2 of 16 |
| Alvin Kamara Rec Yds | Juwan Johnson Receptions | -0.48 | 12 of 45 |
| Tyler Shough Interceptions | Alvin Kamara Rush Att | -0.51 | 2 of 17 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara Rush Att | 5.5 | 11.0 | 59% | 75% | 80 |
| Chris Olave Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 23% | 64 |
| Alvin Kamara Rush Yds | 30.5 | 49.0 | 55% | 74% | 62 |
| Alvin Kamara Rec Yds | 13.5 | 27.0 | 55% | 75% | 61 |
| Juwan Johnson Rec Yds | 48.5 | 38.0 | 53% | 20% | 60 |
| Juwan Johnson Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 71% | 40% | 60 |
| Chris Olave Rec Yds | 62.5 | 63.0 | 50% | 52% | 52 |
| Chris Olave Receptions | 5.5 | 6.0 | 62% | 48% | 52 |
| Rashid Shaheed Rec Yds | 46.5 | 47.0 | 56% | 53% | 34 |
| Tyler Shough Pass TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 41% | 17 |
| Tyler Shough Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 35% | 17 |
| Tyler Shough Pass Yds | 258.5 | 243.0 | 50% | 50% | 10 |
| Tyler Shough Rush Yds | 17.5 | 12.0 | 50% | 50% | 10 |
| Devaughn Vele Rec Yds | 14.5 | 15.0 | 56% | 56% | 9 |
Build a Saints parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Saints are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 31 of 85 Saints games (36%), and 5 of 17 (29%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Saints alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Saints player profiles: Alvin Kamara · Chris Olave · Juwan Johnson · Rashid Shaheed · Tyler Shough · Devaughn Vele
NFC South rivals: Atlanta Falcons · Carolina Panthers · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money