Which Saints props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Saints averaged 18.0 points per game and the game total went Over in 5 of 17 games (29%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 36% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara Rush Yds | Alvin Kamara Rush Att | +0.90 | 32 of 66 |
| Kendre Miller Rush Yds | Kendre Miller Rush Att | +0.86 | 7 of 20 |
| Juwan Johnson Rec TDs | Spencer Rattler Pass TDs | +0.72 | 1 of 16 |
| NO Points | Game Total Points | +0.64 | 31 of 85 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.61 | 30 of 85 |
| NO Points | Alvin Kamara Rush TDs | +0.55 | 13 of 66 |
| Juwan Johnson Rec Yds | Spencer Rattler Interceptions | +0.52 | 5 of 16 |
| NO Points | Alvin Kamara Rush Yds | +0.43 | 24 of 66 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara Rec Yds | Juwan Johnson Receptions | -0.43 | 6 of 57 |
| Juwan Johnson Receptions | Kendre Miller Rush Att | -0.46 | 1 of 17 |
| Chris Olave Receptions | Kendre Miller Rush TDs | -0.52 | 0 of 15 |
| Juwan Johnson Rec Yds | Kendre Miller Rush Att | -0.54 | 2 of 17 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO Points | 19.5 | 19.0 | 35% | 51% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 21.5 | 21.0 | 53% | 48% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 39.5 | 39.0 | 53% | 48% | 85 |
| Juwan Johnson Rec Yds | 38.5 | 38.0 | 65% | 39% | 74 |
| Juwan Johnson Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 71% | 36% | 74 |
| Juwan Johnson Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 24% | 74 |
| Alvin Kamara Rush Yds | 51.5 | 51.0 | 27% | 53% | 66 |
| Alvin Kamara Rush Att | 14.5 | 14.0 | 36% | 53% | 66 |
| Alvin Kamara Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 9% | 23% | 66 |
| Alvin Kamara Rec Yds | 25.5 | 25.0 | 27% | 52% | 66 |
| Alvin Kamara Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0% | 14% | 66 |
| Chris Olave Rec Yds | 62.5 | 62.0 | 50% | 49% | 55 |
| Chris Olave Receptions | 6.5 | 6.0 | 44% | 31% | 55 |
| Chris Olave Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 44% | 31% | 55 |
| Kendre Miller Rush Yds | 24.5 | 24.0 | 43% | 45% | 20 |
| Kendre Miller Rush Att | 7.5 | 7.0 | 43% | 45% | 20 |
| Kendre Miller Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 14% | 15% | 20 |
| Spencer Rattler Pass Yds | 214.5 | 214.0 | 44% | 44% | 16 |
| Spencer Rattler Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 22% | 12% | 16 |
| Spencer Rattler Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 33% | 38% | 16 |
| Spencer Rattler Rush Yds | 14.5 | 14.0 | 44% | 50% | 16 |
| Tyler Shough Pass Yds | 243.5 | 243.0 | 45% | 45% | 11 |
| Tyler Shough Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 27% | 27% | 11 |
| Tyler Shough Interceptions | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 11 |
| Tyler Shough Rush Yds | 12.5 | 12.0 | 45% | 45% | 11 |
| Tyler Shough Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 18% | 11 |
| Devaughn Vele Rec Yds | 15.5 | 15.0 | 44% | 44% | 9 |
| Devaughn Vele Receptions | 2.5 | 2.0 | 44% | 44% | 9 |
Build a Saints parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Saints are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 31 of 85 Saints games (36%), and 5 of 17 (29%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Saints alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Saints player profiles: Juwan Johnson · Alvin Kamara · Chris Olave · Kendre Miller · Spencer Rattler · Tyler Shough
NFC South rivals: Atlanta Falcons · Carolina Panthers · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money