Which Steelers props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Steelers averaged 23.4 points per game and the game total went Over in 10 of 17 games (59%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 44% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth Rec Yds | Pat Freiermuth Receptions | +0.73 | 35 of 67 |
| DK Metcalf Rec Yds | DK Metcalf Receptions | +0.72 | 6 of 15 |
| Aaron Rodgers Interceptions | Pat Freiermuth Rec Yds | +0.41 | 3 of 15 |
| Aaron Rodgers Interceptions | Jaylen Warren Rush Att | +0.35 | 4 of 17 |
| Aaron Rodgers Pass TDs | Pat Freiermuth Rec Yds | +0.34 | 3 of 15 |
| Aaron Rodgers Interceptions | Pat Freiermuth Rec TDs | +0.33 | 1 of 17 |
| Aaron Rodgers Pass TDs | Pat Freiermuth Rec TDs | +0.32 | 1 of 17 |
| Aaron Rodgers Interceptions | Pat Freiermuth Receptions | +0.30 | 3 of 15 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren Rush Att | DK Metcalf Receptions | -0.48 | 3 of 15 |
| Pat Freiermuth Receptions | Darnell Washington Rec Yds | -0.50 | 4 of 25 |
| Jaylen Warren Rec Yds | Darnell Washington Rec Yds | -0.56 | 1 of 25 |
| Jaylen Warren Rush Att | DK Metcalf Rec Yds | -0.76 | 2 of 15 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 24% | 80 |
| Pat Freiermuth Rec Yds | 26.5 | 27.0 | 53% | 57% | 67 |
| Pat Freiermuth Receptions | 2.5 | 3.0 | 73% | 75% | 67 |
| Jaylen Warren Rush Att | 12.5 | 10.0 | 53% | 20% | 64 |
| Jaylen Warren Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 16% | 64 |
| Jaylen Warren Rush Yds | 61.5 | 45.0 | 50% | 23% | 57 |
| Jaylen Warren Rec Yds | 20.5 | 19.0 | 50% | 45% | 53 |
| Calvin Austin III Rec Yds | 30.5 | 28.0 | 50% | 43% | 35 |
| Darnell Washington Rec Yds | 24.5 | 15.0 | 50% | 33% | 30 |
| Aaron Rodgers Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 35% | 35% | 17 |
| Aaron Rodgers Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 24% | 17 |
| DK Metcalf Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 35% | 17 |
| Aaron Rodgers Pass Yds | 218.5 | 203.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Kenneth Gainwell Rush Yds | 21.5 | 20.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| DK Metcalf Rec Yds | 48.5 | 49.0 | 53% | 53% | 15 |
| DK Metcalf Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 53% | 53% | 15 |
Build a Steelers parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Steelers are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 37 of 85 Steelers games (44%), and 10 of 17 (59%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Steelers alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Steelers player profiles: Pat Freiermuth · Jaylen Warren · Calvin Austin III · Darnell Washington · Aaron Rodgers · DK Metcalf
AFC North rivals: Baltimore Ravens · Cincinnati Bengals · Cleveland Browns
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money