Which Steelers props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Steelers averaged 23.4 points per game and the game total went Over in 10 of 17 games (59%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 44% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth Rec Yds | Pat Freiermuth Receptions | +0.75 | 24 of 74 |
| PIT Points | Game Total Points | +0.74 | 24 of 85 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.73 | 24 of 85 |
| DK Metcalf Rec Yds | DK Metcalf Receptions | +0.72 | 3 of 15 |
| Game Total Points | Aaron Rodgers Pass TDs | +0.67 | 3 of 16 |
| PIT Points | Aaron Rodgers Pass TDs | +0.62 | 4 of 16 |
| Aaron Rodgers Interceptions | Jaylen Warren Rec Yds | +0.58 | 4 of 15 |
| Game Total Points | Aaron Rodgers Pass Yds | +0.55 | 6 of 16 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren Rush TDs | Jaylen Warren Rec Yds | -0.32 | 2 of 64 |
| Pat Freiermuth Rec Yds | Darnell Washington Rec Yds | -0.35 | 3 of 28 |
| Pat Freiermuth Receptions | Darnell Washington Rec Yds | -0.47 | 2 of 28 |
| Jaylen Warren Rec Yds | Darnell Washington Rec Yds | -0.52 | 1 of 31 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT Points | 23.5 | 23.0 | 65% | 36% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 21.5 | 21.0 | 59% | 42% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 43.5 | 43.0 | 65% | 38% | 85 |
| Pat Freiermuth Rec Yds | 28.5 | 28.0 | 40% | 54% | 74 |
| Pat Freiermuth Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 13% | 39% | 74 |
| Pat Freiermuth Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 20% | 27% | 74 |
| Jaylen Warren Rush Yds | 44.5 | 44.0 | 69% | 39% | 64 |
| Jaylen Warren Rush Att | 11.5 | 11.0 | 69% | 28% | 64 |
| Jaylen Warren Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25% | 16% | 64 |
| Jaylen Warren Rec Yds | 16.5 | 16.0 | 44% | 48% | 64 |
| Darnell Washington Rec Yds | 15.5 | 15.0 | 62% | 35% | 34 |
| Aaron Rodgers Pass Yds | 203.5 | 203.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Aaron Rodgers Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 38% | 38% | 16 |
| Aaron Rodgers Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25% | 25% | 16 |
| DK Metcalf Rec Yds | 49.5 | 49.0 | 47% | 47% | 15 |
| DK Metcalf Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 33% | 33% | 15 |
| DK Metcalf Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 40% | 40% | 15 |
Build a Steelers parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Steelers are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 37 of 85 Steelers games (44%), and 10 of 17 (59%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Steelers alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Steelers player profiles: Pat Freiermuth · Jaylen Warren · Darnell Washington · Aaron Rodgers · DK Metcalf
AFC North rivals: Baltimore Ravens · Cincinnati Bengals · Cleveland Browns
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money