Which Colts props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Colts averaged 27.4 points per game and the game total went Over in 9 of 17 games (53%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 53% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Dulin Rec Yds | Andrew Ogletree Rec TDs | +0.94 | 1 of 17 |
| Alec Pierce Rec Yds | Alec Pierce Receptions | +0.79 | 15 of 64 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.73 | 29 of 85 |
| Tyler Warren Rec Yds | Tyler Warren Receptions | +0.72 | 5 of 17 |
| IND Points | Game Total Points | +0.70 | 30 of 85 |
| Alec Pierce Rec TDs | Anthony Richardson Pass TDs | +0.69 | 3 of 15 |
| Jonathan Taylor Rush Yds | Tyler Warren Rec Yds | +0.69 | 5 of 17 |
| IND Points | Jonathan Taylor Rush TDs | +0.65 | 12 of 69 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Ogletree Rec Yds | Alec Pierce Rec Yds | -0.41 | 7 of 32 |
| IND Points | Anthony Richardson Interceptions | -0.44 | 3 of 17 |
| IND Points | Anthony Richardson Rush Yds | -0.55 | 3 of 17 |
| IND Points | Anthony Richardson Pass Yds | -0.65 | 2 of 17 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND Points | 23.5 | 23.0 | 59% | 47% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 24.5 | 24.0 | 47% | 44% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 47.5 | 47.0 | 53% | 45% | 85 |
| Jonathan Taylor Rush Yds | 85.5 | 85.0 | 41% | 49% | 69 |
| Jonathan Taylor Rush Att | 18.5 | 18.0 | 41% | 49% | 69 |
| Jonathan Taylor Rush TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 29% | 19% | 69 |
| Jonathan Taylor Rec Yds | 14.5 | 14.0 | 59% | 39% | 69 |
| Jonathan Taylor Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 12% | 9% | 69 |
| Mo Alie-Cox Rec Yds | 9.5 | 9.0 | 45% | 50% | 68 |
| Mo Alie-Cox Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 9% | 15% | 68 |
| Alec Pierce Rec Yds | 48.5 | 48.0 | 67% | 41% | 64 |
| Alec Pierce Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 60% | 25% | 64 |
| Alec Pierce Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 27% | 23% | 64 |
| Ashton Dulin Rec Yds | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25% | 41% | 51 |
| Ashton Dulin Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0% | 8% | 51 |
| Josh Downs Rec Yds | 40.5 | 40.0 | 44% | 49% | 47 |
| Josh Downs Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 31% | 40% | 47 |
| Josh Downs Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25% | 23% | 47 |
| Andrew Ogletree Rec Yds | 0.5 | 0.0 | 27% | 50% | 34 |
| Andrew Ogletree Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 9% | 12% | 34 |
| Anthony Richardson Pass Yds | 131.5 | 131.0 | 0% | 53% | 17 |
| Anthony Richardson Pass TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0% | 47% | 17 |
| Anthony Richardson Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0% | 47% | 17 |
| Anthony Richardson Rush Yds | 37.5 | 37.0 | 0% | 53% | 17 |
| Anthony Richardson Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0% | 47% | 17 |
| Tyler Warren Rec Yds | 44.5 | 44.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| Tyler Warren Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| Tyler Warren Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 24% | 17 |
| Daniel Jones Pass Yds | 255.5 | 255.0 | 46% | 46% | 13 |
| Daniel Jones Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 46% | 46% | 13 |
| Daniel Jones Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 38% | 38% | 13 |
| Daniel Jones Rush Yds | 4.5 | 4.0 | 46% | 46% | 13 |
| Daniel Jones Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 31% | 31% | 13 |
Build a Colts parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Colts are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 45 of 85 Colts games (53%), and 9 of 17 (53%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Colts alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Colts player profiles: Jonathan Taylor · Mo Alie-Cox · Alec Pierce · Ashton Dulin · Josh Downs · Andrew Ogletree
AFC South rivals: Houston Texans · Jacksonville Jaguars · Tennessee Titans
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money