Which Colts props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Colts averaged 27.4 points per game and the game total went Over in 9 of 17 games (53%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 53% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren Rec Yds | Tyler Warren Receptions | +0.72 | 9 of 17 |
| Alec Pierce Rec Yds | Alec Pierce Receptions | +0.70 | 11 of 50 |
| Jonathan Taylor Rush Yds | Tyler Warren Rec Yds | +0.69 | 6 of 17 |
| Daniel Jones Pass TDs | Michael Pittman Rec TDs | +0.55 | 4 of 17 |
| Jonathan Taylor Rec Yds | Tyler Warren Rec Yds | +0.53 | 7 of 16 |
| Daniel Jones Interceptions | Michael Pittman Rec Yds | +0.40 | 3 of 17 |
| Jonathan Taylor Rush Yds | Tyler Warren Receptions | +0.38 | 6 of 17 |
| Jonathan Taylor Rush Att | Tyler Warren Rec Yds | +0.37 | 6 of 17 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce Rec TDs | Michael Pittman Rec Yds | -0.34 | 4 of 59 |
| Daniel Jones Pass TDs | Alec Pierce Rec TDs | -0.36 | 1 of 17 |
| Josh Downs Rec Yds | Tyler Warren Receptions | -0.36 | 6 of 16 |
| Josh Downs Rec Yds | Tyler Warren Rec Yds | -0.37 | 4 of 16 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor Rush Att | 16.5 | 17.0 | 65% | 50% | 80 |
| Jonathan Taylor Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 53% | 44% | 80 |
| Michael Pittman Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 24% | 80 |
| Michael Pittman Rec Yds | 38.5 | 42.0 | 53% | 68% | 75 |
| Jonathan Taylor Rush Yds | 75.5 | 84.0 | 53% | 58% | 64 |
| Alec Pierce Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 20% | 64 |
| Jonathan Taylor Rec Yds | 19.5 | 16.0 | 56% | 40% | 55 |
| Alec Pierce Rec Yds | 77.5 | 56.0 | 50% | 28% | 50 |
| Alec Pierce Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 64% | 30% | 50 |
| Josh Downs Rec Yds | 38.5 | 39.0 | 50% | 55% | 44 |
| Daniel Jones Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 35% | 35% | 17 |
| Daniel Jones Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| Tyler Warren Rec Yds | 43.5 | 44.0 | 53% | 53% | 17 |
| Tyler Warren Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 71% | 71% | 17 |
| Daniel Jones Pass Yds | 254.5 | 255.0 | 54% | 54% | 13 |
| Daniel Jones Rush Yds | 3.5 | 4.0 | 62% | 62% | 13 |
Build a Colts parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Colts are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 45 of 85 Colts games (53%), and 9 of 17 (53%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Colts alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Colts player profiles: Jonathan Taylor · Michael Pittman · Alec Pierce · Josh Downs · Daniel Jones · Tyler Warren
AFC South rivals: Houston Texans · Jacksonville Jaguars · Tennessee Titans
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money