Which Jaguars props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Jaguars averaged 27.9 points per game and the game total went Over in 10 of 17 games (59%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 47% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington Rec Yds | Parker Washington Receptions | +0.90 | 11 of 38 |
| Bhayshul Tuten Rush Yds | Bhayshul Tuten Rush Att | +0.89 | 4 of 15 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.66 | 29 of 85 |
| JAX Points | Trevor Lawrence Pass TDs | +0.59 | 18 of 77 |
| JAX Points | Game Total Points | +0.58 | 23 of 85 |
| Game Total Points | Trevor Lawrence Pass TDs | +0.48 | 21 of 77 |
| Trevor Lawrence Rush TDs | Parker Washington Receptions | +0.45 | 4 of 31 |
| Trevor Lawrence Interceptions | Bhayshul Tuten Rush Att | +0.39 | 2 of 15 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence Rush Yds | Brenton Strange Receptions | -0.40 | 2 of 25 |
| Game Total Points | Bhayshul Tuten Rush TDs | -0.40 | 2 of 15 |
| Trevor Lawrence Rush Yds | Bhayshul Tuten Rush Yds | -0.47 | 2 of 15 |
| Opponent Points | Bhayshul Tuten Rush TDs | -0.61 | 1 of 15 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX Points | 25.5 | 25.0 | 71% | 35% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 21.5 | 21.0 | 35% | 53% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 47.5 | 47.0 | 53% | 45% | 85 |
| Trevor Lawrence Pass Yds | 229.5 | 229.0 | 53% | 48% | 77 |
| Trevor Lawrence Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 47% | 35% | 77 |
| Trevor Lawrence Interceptions | 1.5 | 1.0 | 12% | 18% | 77 |
| Trevor Lawrence Rush Yds | 15.5 | 15.0 | 59% | 49% | 77 |
| Trevor Lawrence Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 22% | 77 |
| Parker Washington Rec Yds | 31.5 | 31.0 | 62% | 42% | 38 |
| Parker Washington Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 50% | 32% | 38 |
| Parker Washington Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 31% | 26% | 38 |
| Brenton Strange Rec Yds | 27.5 | 27.0 | 67% | 36% | 33 |
| Brenton Strange Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 50% | 30% | 33 |
| Brenton Strange Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25% | 18% | 33 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. Rec Yds | 55.5 | 55.0 | 29% | 52% | 31 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 14% | 39% | 31 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 14% | 35% | 31 |
| Bhayshul Tuten Rush Yds | 17.5 | 17.0 | 40% | 40% | 15 |
| Bhayshul Tuten Rush Att | 5.5 | 5.0 | 40% | 40% | 15 |
| Bhayshul Tuten Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 33% | 33% | 15 |
| Jakobi Meyers Rec Yds | 45.5 | 45.0 | 44% | 44% | 9 |
| Jakobi Meyers Receptions | 5.5 | 5.0 | 22% | 22% | 9 |
| Jakobi Meyers Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 33% | 33% | 9 |
Build a Jaguars parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Jaguars are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 40 of 85 Jaguars games (47%), and 10 of 17 (59%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Jaguars alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Jaguars player profiles: Trevor Lawrence · Parker Washington · Brenton Strange · Brian Thomas Jr. · Bhayshul Tuten · Jakobi Meyers
AFC South rivals: Houston Texans · Indianapolis Colts · Tennessee Titans
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money