Which Texans props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Texans averaged 23.8 points per game and the game total went Over in 6 of 17 games (35%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 39% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz Rec Yds | Dalton Schultz Receptions | +0.83 | 15 of 49 |
| Woody Marks Rush Yds | Woody Marks Rush Att | +0.83 | 7 of 16 |
| HOU Points | Game Total Points | +0.74 | 31 of 85 |
| HOU Points | C.J. Stroud Pass TDs | +0.69 | 12 of 46 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.60 | 30 of 85 |
| Game Total Points | C.J. Stroud Pass TDs | +0.54 | 12 of 46 |
| Nico Collins Rec TDs | C.J. Stroud Pass TDs | +0.50 | 10 of 38 |
| Xavier Hutchinson Rec TDs | C.J. Stroud Pass TDs | +0.49 | 2 of 38 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent Points | Woody Marks Rec TDs | -0.32 | 1 of 16 |
| Nico Collins Rec TDs | Brevin Jordan Rec TDs | -0.37 | 0 of 23 |
| Xavier Hutchinson Rec Yds | Woody Marks Rec TDs | -0.41 | 1 of 15 |
| Dalton Schultz Rec Yds | Woody Marks Rush Yds | -0.46 | 3 of 16 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU Points | 21.5 | 21.0 | 47% | 45% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 20.5 | 20.0 | 24% | 55% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 41.5 | 41.0 | 41% | 48% | 85 |
| Nico Collins Rec Yds | 65.5 | 65.0 | 53% | 39% | 66 |
| Nico Collins Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 33% | 36% | 66 |
| Nico Collins Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 33% | 32% | 66 |
| Dalton Schultz Rec Yds | 34.5 | 34.0 | 59% | 45% | 49 |
| Dalton Schultz Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 59% | 35% | 49 |
| Dalton Schultz Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 18% | 20% | 49 |
| C.J. Stroud Pass Yds | 233.5 | 233.0 | 36% | 54% | 46 |
| C.J. Stroud Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 36% | 41% | 46 |
| C.J. Stroud Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 43% | 37% | 46 |
| C.J. Stroud Rush Yds | 11.5 | 11.0 | 50% | 48% | 46 |
| C.J. Stroud Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 7% | 9% | 46 |
| Davis Mills Pass Yds | 140.5 | 140.0 | 50% | 60% | 43 |
| Davis Mills Pass TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 50% | 53% | 43 |
| Davis Mills Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 17% | 40% | 43 |
| Davis Mills Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 17% | 7% | 43 |
| Xavier Hutchinson Rec Yds | 15.5 | 15.0 | 75% | 40% | 42 |
| Xavier Hutchinson Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 12% | 5% | 42 |
| Brevin Jordan Rec Yds | 13.5 | 13.0 | — | 48% | 29 |
| Brevin Jordan Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 17% | 29 |
| Cade Stover Rec Yds | 9.5 | 9.0 | 50% | 45% | 20 |
| Jaylin Noel Rec Yds | 7.5 | 7.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| Woody Marks Rush Yds | 44.5 | 44.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Woody Marks Rush Att | 10.5 | 10.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Woody Marks Rec Yds | 7.5 | 7.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Woody Marks Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 19% | 19% | 16 |
Build a Texans parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Texans are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 33 of 85 Texans games (39%), and 6 of 17 (35%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Texans alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Texans player profiles: Nico Collins · Dalton Schultz · C.J. Stroud · Davis Mills · Xavier Hutchinson · Brevin Jordan
AFC South rivals: Indianapolis Colts · Jacksonville Jaguars · Tennessee Titans
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money