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Houston Texans Same Game Parlay: Correlated Props & Hit Rates

Which Texans props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.

In 2025 the Texans averaged 23.8 points per game and the game total went Over in 6 of 17 games (35%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 39% of the time.

The signature stack: C.J. Stroud Pass Yds + Nico Collins Rec Yds have a chemistry of +0.44 — both went Over their typical lines together in 14 of 35 shared games. Why QB-WR stacks work →

Props that win together (Texans chemistry pairs)

Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.

Leg ALeg BChemistryBoth Over
Woody Marks Rush YdsWoody Marks Rush Att+0.838 of 16
Dalton Schultz Rec YdsDalton Schultz Receptions+0.8313 of 46
Woody Marks Rush YdsJayden Higgins Rec TDs+0.696 of 16
Woody Marks Rush AttJayden Higgins Rec Yds+0.577 of 16
Woody Marks Rush YdsJayden Higgins Rec Yds+0.516 of 15
Woody Marks Rush AttNico Collins Rec Yds+0.506 of 15
C.J. Stroud Pass TDsNico Collins Rec TDs+0.419 of 48
C.J. Stroud Pass YdsNico Collins Rec Yds+0.3814 of 35

Legs that fight (or: Under candidates)

Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →

Leg ALeg BChemistryBoth Over
Woody Marks Rush YdsNico Collins Rec TDs-0.430 of 16
Nico Collins Rec TDsJayden Higgins Rec TDs-0.440 of 17
Woody Marks Rush YdsDalton Schultz Rec Yds-0.463 of 16
Woody Marks Rush AttNick Chubb Rush Yds-0.605 of 15

Texans player prop hit rates

Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.

PropEst. LineWtd MedianOver % '25Over % 5yrGames
Nico Collins Rec TDs0.50.029%24%80
Nico Collins Rec Yds74.569.053%38%61
Nico Collins Receptions3.54.067%61%61
C.J. Stroud Pass TDs1.51.029%38%48
C.J. Stroud Interceptions0.50.035%33%48
Dalton Schultz Rec Yds38.534.053%43%46
Dalton Schultz Receptions4.54.059%35%46
C.J. Stroud Pass Yds228.5234.050%63%43
C.J. Stroud Rush Yds21.513.055%28%39
Xavier Hutchinson Rec Yds28.518.050%35%26
Woody Marks Rush Att9.510.065%65%17
Jayden Higgins Rec TDs0.50.035%35%17
Woody Marks Rush Yds47.544.050%50%16
Jayden Higgins Rec Yds31.532.056%56%16
Nick Chubb Rush Yds33.534.060%60%15
Woody Marks Rec Yds8.58.050%50%12

Build a Texans parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.

FAQ

What are the best correlated props for a Houston Texans same game parlay?

Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Texans are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.

How often does the Texans game total go Over?

Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 33 of 85 Texans games (39%), and 6 of 17 (35%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.

Where do these numbers come from?

Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Texans alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.

Keep exploring

Texans player profiles: Nico Collins · C.J. Stroud · Dalton Schultz · Xavier Hutchinson · Woody Marks · Jayden Higgins

AFC South rivals: Indianapolis Colts · Jacksonville Jaguars · Tennessee Titans

Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money