Which Cowboys props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Cowboys averaged 27.7 points per game and the game total went Over in 13 of 17 games (76%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 59% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens Rec Yds | George Pickens Receptions | +0.91 | 7 of 17 |
| Malik Davis Rush Yds | Malik Davis Rush Att | +0.87 | 5 of 17 |
| Malik Davis Rush Yds | KaVontae Turpin Rec TDs | +0.87 | 1 of 17 |
| Malik Davis Rush Att | KaVontae Turpin Rec TDs | +0.86 | 1 of 17 |
| Malik Davis Rush Yds | KaVontae Turpin Rec Yds | +0.79 | 4 of 17 |
| DAL Points | Javonte Williams Rush Att | +0.68 | 7 of 16 |
| Malik Davis Rush Att | KaVontae Turpin Rec Yds | +0.66 | 2 of 17 |
| DAL Points | Dak Prescott Pass TDs | +0.65 | 21 of 70 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens Rec Yds | Ryan Flournoy Rec Yds | -0.54 | 3 of 15 |
| George Pickens Receptions | Ryan Flournoy Rec Yds | -0.57 | 3 of 15 |
| Malik Davis Rush Att | Jake Ferguson Receptions | -0.59 | 0 of 16 |
| Javonte Williams Rush TDs | George Pickens Rec Yds | -0.60 | 0 of 16 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Points | 26.5 | 26.0 | 53% | 51% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 26.5 | 26.0 | 65% | 40% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 50.5 | 50.0 | 71% | 42% | 85 |
| CeeDee Lamb Rec Yds | 85.5 | 85.0 | 46% | 45% | 78 |
| CeeDee Lamb Receptions | 6.5 | 6.0 | 38% | 42% | 78 |
| CeeDee Lamb Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 23% | 37% | 78 |
| Dak Prescott Pass Yds | 261.5 | 261.0 | 53% | 47% | 70 |
| Dak Prescott Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2.0 | 29% | 33% | 70 |
| Dak Prescott Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 51% | 70 |
| Dak Prescott Rush Yds | 7.5 | 7.0 | 47% | 51% | 70 |
| Dak Prescott Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 12% | 10% | 70 |
| KaVontae Turpin Rec Yds | 10.5 | 10.0 | 67% | 37% | 65 |
| KaVontae Turpin Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 13% | 11% | 65 |
| Jake Ferguson Rec Yds | 32.5 | 32.0 | 53% | 46% | 59 |
| Jake Ferguson Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 59% | 39% | 59 |
| Jake Ferguson Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 22% | 59 |
| Luke Schoonmaker Rec Yds | 8.5 | 8.0 | 43% | 42% | 38 |
| Luke Schoonmaker Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0% | 8% | 38 |
| Ryan Flournoy Rec Yds | 14.5 | 14.0 | 53% | 42% | 24 |
| Ryan Flournoy Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 27% | 17% | 24 |
| George Pickens Rec Yds | 78.5 | 78.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| George Pickens Receptions | 5.5 | 5.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| George Pickens Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| Malik Davis Rush Yds | 21.5 | 21.0 | 40% | 47% | 17 |
| Malik Davis Rush Att | 3.5 | 3.0 | 40% | 53% | 17 |
| Malik Davis Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 20% | 18% | 17 |
| Javonte Williams Rush Yds | 76.5 | 76.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Javonte Williams Rush Att | 15.5 | 15.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Javonte Williams Rush TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 12% | 12% | 16 |
| Javonte Williams Rec Yds | 5.5 | 5.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
Build a Cowboys parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Cowboys are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 50 of 85 Cowboys games (59%), and 13 of 17 (76%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Cowboys alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Cowboys player profiles: CeeDee Lamb · Dak Prescott · KaVontae Turpin · Jake Ferguson · Luke Schoonmaker · Ryan Flournoy
NFC East rivals: New York Giants · Philadelphia Eagles · Washington Commanders
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money