Which Cowboys props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Cowboys averaged 27.7 points per game and the game total went Over in 13 of 17 games (76%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 59% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens Rec Yds | George Pickens Receptions | +0.91 | 8 of 17 |
| Jake Ferguson Rec Yds | Jake Ferguson Receptions | +0.77 | 19 of 52 |
| Dak Prescott Pass Yds | Javonte Williams Rush Att | +0.73 | 8 of 17 |
| Dak Prescott Pass TDs | Jake Ferguson Rec TDs | +0.66 | 12 of 64 |
| Dak Prescott Pass TDs | George Pickens Rec Yds | +0.64 | 8 of 17 |
| Dak Prescott Pass TDs | George Pickens Rec TDs | +0.60 | 7 of 17 |
| Dak Prescott Pass TDs | Javonte Williams Rush Att | +0.53 | 7 of 17 |
| Dak Prescott Pass Yds | CeeDee Lamb Rec Yds | +0.51 | 16 of 60 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams Rush TDs | George Pickens Receptions | -0.33 | 4 of 17 |
| CeeDee Lamb Rec Yds | KaVontae Turpin Rec Yds | -0.33 | 4 of 33 |
| Javonte Williams Rush Yds | George Pickens Receptions | -0.39 | 5 of 16 |
| Javonte Williams Rush TDs | George Pickens Rec Yds | -0.43 | 4 of 17 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 59% | 50% | 80 |
| Dak Prescott Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 40% | 80 |
| CeeDee Lamb Rec Yds | 84.5 | 84.0 | 54% | 45% | 73 |
| Dak Prescott Pass Yds | 263.5 | 261.0 | 53% | 45% | 65 |
| Jake Ferguson Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 20% | 64 |
| Dak Prescott Rush Yds | 8.5 | 9.0 | 50% | 55% | 60 |
| Jake Ferguson Rec Yds | 35.5 | 33.0 | 50% | 44% | 52 |
| Jake Ferguson Receptions | 4.5 | 5.0 | 62% | 42% | 52 |
| KaVontae Turpin Rec Yds | 25.5 | 18.0 | 54% | 40% | 35 |
| Javonte Williams Rush Att | 14.5 | 15.0 | 65% | 65% | 17 |
| Javonte Williams Rush TDs | 0.5 | 1.0 | 53% | 53% | 17 |
| George Pickens Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| George Pickens Rec Yds | 77.5 | 78.0 | 59% | 59% | 17 |
| George Pickens Receptions | 4.5 | 5.0 | 65% | 65% | 17 |
| Javonte Williams Rush Yds | 82.5 | 76.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Ryan Flournoy Rec Yds | 29.5 | 21.0 | 50% | 44% | 16 |
| Javonte Williams Rec Yds | 9.5 | 10.0 | 55% | 55% | 11 |
Build a Cowboys parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Cowboys are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 50 of 85 Cowboys games (59%), and 13 of 17 (76%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Cowboys alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Cowboys player profiles: Dak Prescott · CeeDee Lamb · Jake Ferguson · KaVontae Turpin · Javonte Williams · George Pickens
NFC East rivals: New York Giants · Philadelphia Eagles · Washington Commanders
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money