Which Commanders props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Commanders averaged 20.9 points per game and the game total went Over in 10 of 17 games (59%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 51% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Yds | Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush TDs | +0.78 | 4 of 17 |
| Dyami Brown Rec Yds | Jayden Daniels Rush Yds | +0.77 | 5 of 15 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.68 | 27 of 85 |
| Dyami Brown Rec Yds | Dyami Brown Rec TDs | +0.64 | 3 of 50 |
| WAS Points | Game Total Points | +0.60 | 23 of 85 |
| Dyami Brown Rec Yds | Jayden Daniels Pass TDs | +0.59 | 6 of 15 |
| Game Total Points | Jayden Daniels Rush TDs | +0.59 | 7 of 24 |
| Opponent Points | Jayden Daniels Rush TDs | +0.52 | 5 of 24 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin Receptions | Jayden Daniels Rush Yds | -0.29 | 6 of 20 |
| Jaylin Lane Rec Yds | Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush TDs | -0.29 | 1 of 15 |
| Opponent Points | Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Yds | -0.43 | 4 of 17 |
| Opponent Points | Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush TDs | -0.43 | 2 of 17 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS Points | 22.5 | 22.0 | 47% | 42% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 27.5 | 27.0 | 47% | 40% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 49.5 | 49.0 | 47% | 41% | 85 |
| Terry McLaurin Rec Yds | 58.5 | 58.0 | 40% | 51% | 78 |
| Terry McLaurin Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 30% | 49% | 78 |
| Terry McLaurin Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 30% | 32% | 78 |
| John Bates Rec Yds | 9.5 | 9.0 | 40% | 46% | 59 |
| John Bates Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 10% | 5% | 59 |
| Dyami Brown Rec Yds | 11.5 | 11.0 | — | 44% | 50 |
| Dyami Brown Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 6% | 50 |
| Jayden Daniels Pass Yds | 211.5 | 211.0 | 29% | 50% | 24 |
| Jayden Daniels Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 29% | 42% | 24 |
| Jayden Daniels Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 43% | 42% | 24 |
| Jayden Daniels Rush Yds | 44.5 | 44.0 | 43% | 50% | 24 |
| Jayden Daniels Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 24 |
| Luke McCaffrey Rec Yds | 17.5 | 17.0 | 67% | 45% | 22 |
| Luke McCaffrey Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 33% | 14% | 22 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Yds | 32.5 | 32.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Att | 10.5 | 10.0 | 47% | 47% | 17 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 35% | 17 |
| Jaylin Lane Rec Yds | 11.5 | 11.0 | 47% | 47% | 15 |
| Marcus Mariota Pass Yds | 207.5 | 207.0 | 50% | 38% | 13 |
| Marcus Mariota Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 30% | 38% | 13 |
| Marcus Mariota Interceptions | 1.5 | 1.0 | 10% | 8% | 13 |
| Marcus Mariota Rush Yds | 34.5 | 34.0 | 40% | 38% | 13 |
Build a Commanders parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Commanders are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 43 of 85 Commanders games (51%), and 10 of 17 (59%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Commanders alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Commanders player profiles: Terry McLaurin · John Bates · Dyami Brown · Jayden Daniels · Luke McCaffrey · Jacory Croskey-Merritt
NFC East rivals: Dallas Cowboys · New York Giants · Philadelphia Eagles
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money