Which Commanders props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the Commanders averaged 20.9 points per game and the game total went Over in 10 of 17 games (59%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 51% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz Rec Yds | Zach Ertz Receptions | +0.87 | 10 of 27 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Yds | Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush TDs | +0.78 | 4 of 17 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Yds | Deebo Samuel Sr. Rec Yds | +0.53 | 5 of 16 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush TDs | Deebo Samuel Sr. Rec Yds | +0.45 | 4 of 16 |
| Zach Ertz Rec TDs | Deebo Samuel Sr. Receptions | +0.37 | 3 of 16 |
| Terry McLaurin Rec Yds | Zach Ertz Receptions | +0.36 | 6 of 21 |
| Marcus Mariota Pass TDs | Deebo Samuel Sr. Rec TDs | +0.34 | 3 of 17 |
| Marcus Mariota Pass TDs | Terry McLaurin Rec Yds | +0.33 | 4 of 25 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota Pass TDs | Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush TDs | -0.30 | 2 of 17 |
| Marcus Mariota Interceptions | Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Att | -0.36 | 1 of 17 |
| Marcus Mariota Interceptions | Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Yds | -0.39 | 3 of 17 |
| Marcus Mariota Interceptions | Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush TDs | -0.46 | 0 of 17 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin Rec Yds | 56.5 | 59.0 | 50% | 55% | 69 |
| Marcus Mariota Pass TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 41% | 25% | 32 |
| Marcus Mariota Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 19% | 32 |
| Zach Ertz Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 25% | 32 |
| Zach Ertz Rec Yds | 41.5 | 38.0 | 50% | 37% | 27 |
| Zach Ertz Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 58% | 56% | 27 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. Rush Yds | 51.5 | 39.0 | 50% | 36% | 25 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Yds | 31.5 | 32.0 | 53% | 53% | 17 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Att | 9.5 | 10.0 | 53% | 53% | 17 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 35% | 17 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. Rec Yds | 42.5 | 41.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 62% | 62% | 16 |
| Marcus Mariota Pass Yds | 210.5 | 207.0 | 50% | 42% | 12 |
| Marcus Mariota Rush Yds | 33.5 | 28.0 | 50% | 50% | 12 |
Build a Commanders parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the Commanders are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 43 of 85 Commanders games (51%), and 10 of 17 (59%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the Commanders alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
Commanders player profiles: Terry McLaurin · Marcus Mariota · Zach Ertz · Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Deebo Samuel Sr.
NFC East rivals: Dallas Cowboys · New York Giants · Philadelphia Eagles
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money