Jake Ferguson (TE, Dallas Cowboys) — every number below comes from real box scores across the 2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted, with sample sizes shown. Estimated lines are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines.
| Market | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rec Yds | 32.5 | 32.0 | 53% | 46% | 59 |
| Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 59% | 39% | 59 |
| Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 22% | 59 |
Props that historically rise and fall with Jake Ferguson's production — the raw material of a coherent same game parlay.
| Partner Prop | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott Pass TDs | +0.65 | 9 of 49 |
| Javonte Williams Rec Yds | +0.53 | 5 of 16 |
| Javonte Williams Rush Yds | +0.51 | 4 of 16 |
| DAL Points | +0.51 | 11 of 59 |
| Dak Prescott Pass Yds | +0.47 | 14 of 49 |
| George Pickens Rec TDs | +0.45 | 5 of 17 |
Stack Jake Ferguson in the Parlay Architect →
The table above shows the over rate against a trailing-median line for each market, in 2025 and across the full five-season sample. Rates near 50% are expected — lines track production. What matters for an SGP is which legs move together.
Historically, Dak Prescott — see the chemistry table. Positive chemistry means the props tend to go Over in the same games.
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