Which 49ers props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.
In 2025 the 49ers averaged 25.7 points per game and the game total went Over in 10 of 17 games (59%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 54% of the time.
Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. Rec Yds | Deebo Samuel Sr. Receptions | +0.79 | 21 of 59 |
| George Kittle Rec Yds | George Kittle Receptions | +0.76 | 25 of 71 |
| SF Points | Game Total Points | +0.75 | 26 of 85 |
| Opponent Points | Game Total Points | +0.72 | 28 of 85 |
| SF Points | Brock Purdy Pass TDs | +0.72 | 12 of 49 |
| Game Total Points | Brock Purdy Pass TDs | +0.63 | 11 of 49 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. Rec TDs | Brock Purdy Pass TDs | +0.58 | 4 of 34 |
| SF Points | Christian McCaffrey Rush Yds | +0.57 | 19 of 48 |
Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →
| Leg A | Leg B | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey Rec TDs | Deebo Samuel Sr. Receptions | -0.35 | 1 of 25 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. Rec Yds | Brock Purdy Rush TDs | -0.37 | 2 of 34 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. Receptions | Brock Purdy Rush TDs | -0.40 | 1 of 34 |
| SF Points | Brock Purdy Interceptions | -0.40 | 1 of 49 |
Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.
| Prop | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF Points | 26.5 | 26.0 | 29% | 47% | 85 |
| Opponent Points | 22.5 | 22.0 | 53% | 42% | 85 |
| Game Total Points | 47.5 | 47.0 | 47% | 47% | 85 |
| George Kittle Rec Yds | 64.5 | 64.0 | 55% | 46% | 71 |
| George Kittle Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 55% | 44% | 71 |
| George Kittle Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 55% | 41% | 71 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. Rec Yds | 54.5 | 54.0 | — | 53% | 59 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | — | 44% | 59 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 25% | 59 |
| Brock Purdy Pass Yds | 255.5 | 255.0 | 56% | 45% | 49 |
| Brock Purdy Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2.0 | 44% | 27% | 49 |
| Brock Purdy Interceptions | 1.5 | 1.0 | 33% | 18% | 49 |
| Brock Purdy Rush Yds | 12.5 | 12.0 | 67% | 37% | 49 |
| Brock Purdy Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 22% | 18% | 49 |
| Christian McCaffrey Rush Yds | 64.5 | 64.0 | 47% | 52% | 48 |
| Christian McCaffrey Rush Att | 17.5 | 17.0 | 53% | 44% | 48 |
| Christian McCaffrey Rush TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 47% | 52% | 48 |
| Christian McCaffrey Rec Yds | 43.5 | 43.0 | 59% | 42% | 48 |
| Christian McCaffrey Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35% | 33% | 48 |
| Demarcus Robinson Rec Yds | 20.5 | 20.0 | 50% | 50% | 14 |
| Jake Tonges Rec Yds | 21.5 | 21.0 | 50% | 42% | 12 |
| Jake Tonges Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 40% | 33% | 12 |
| Jake Tonges Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 50% | 42% | 12 |
| Mac Jones Pass Yds | 235.5 | 235.0 | 45% | 45% | 11 |
| Mac Jones Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 45% | 45% | 11 |
| Mac Jones Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 45% | 45% | 11 |
| Mac Jones Rush Yds | 4.5 | 4.0 | 45% | 45% | 11 |
Build a 49ers parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.
Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the 49ers are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.
Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 46 of 85 49ers games (54%), and 10 of 17 (59%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.
Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the 49ers alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.
49ers player profiles: George Kittle · Deebo Samuel Sr. · Brock Purdy · Christian McCaffrey · Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges
NFC West rivals: Arizona Cardinals · Los Angeles Rams · Seattle Seahawks
Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money