Home › Teams › San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers Same Game Parlay: Correlated Props & Hit Rates

Which 49ers props actually win together — and which quietly fight each other? Everything below is computed from 85 real games (2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted). No picks, no locks: just the historical relationships, with sample sizes.

In 2025 the 49ers averaged 25.7 points per game and the game total went Over in 10 of 17 games (59%). Over the full five-season sample the Over hit 54% of the time.

The signature stack: Brock Purdy Pass Yds + George Kittle Rec Yds have a chemistry of +0.47 — both went Over their typical lines together in 11 of 39 shared games. Why QB-WR stacks work →

Props that win together (49ers chemistry pairs)

Chemistry is the recency-weighted correlation between two props' game-by-game results. Green pairs rise and fall together — one coherent story. The joint column counts games where both beat their typical line.

Leg ALeg BChemistryBoth Over
Jauan Jennings Rec YdsJauan Jennings Receptions+0.8616 of 59
George Kittle Rec YdsGeorge Kittle Receptions+0.7222 of 64
Brock Purdy Pass YdsGeorge Kittle Rec Yds+0.4911 of 39
Brock Purdy Rush YdsGeorge Kittle Receptions+0.497 of 37
Brock Purdy Pass TDsChristian McCaffrey Rush Yds+0.4220 of 51
Brock Purdy Pass YdsChristian McCaffrey Rec Yds+0.385 of 32
Brock Purdy Pass YdsGeorge Kittle Receptions+0.378 of 39
Brock Purdy Rush YdsJauan Jennings Rec TDs+0.375 of 41

Legs that fight (or: Under candidates)

Negative chemistry is not a warning — flip one leg to the Under and a fighting pair becomes a coherent story. How Under legs work in an SGP →

Leg ALeg BChemistryBoth Over
Brock Purdy Pass TDsChristian McCaffrey Rec Yds-0.238 of 51
Christian McCaffrey Rec YdsJauan Jennings Rec TDs-0.253 of 51
Christian McCaffrey Rush TDsJauan Jennings Rec Yds-0.269 of 49
Christian McCaffrey Rush AttJauan Jennings Rec Yds-0.315 of 49

49ers player prop hit rates

Estimated lines are trailing medians of recent production — a stable reference point, not a live sportsbook quote.

PropEst. LineWtd MedianOver % '25Over % 5yrGames
Jauan Jennings Rec TDs0.50.047%20%80
Brock Purdy Pass TDs0.51.047%55%64
Brock Purdy Interceptions0.50.035%33%64
Christian McCaffrey Rush Att19.515.053%23%64
Christian McCaffrey Rush TDs0.50.047%39%64
Christian McCaffrey Rec TDs0.50.035%25%64
George Kittle Rec Yds66.567.060%48%64
George Kittle Receptions5.54.050%36%64
Jauan Jennings Rec Yds40.540.053%39%59
Jauan Jennings Receptions3.54.067%36%59
Christian McCaffrey Rush Yds56.566.053%57%51
Christian McCaffrey Rec Yds52.543.053%35%51
Brock Purdy Pass Yds276.5260.056%42%43
Brock Purdy Rush Yds15.513.056%39%41
Ricky Pearsall Rec Yds84.546.050%29%14
Kendrick Bourne Rec Yds31.527.050%50%12
Jake Tonges Rec Yds30.531.056%56%9

Build a 49ers parlay with live chemistry →
The interactive Parlay Architect recalculates everything — including with injured players excluded.

FAQ

What are the best correlated props for a San Francisco 49ers same game parlay?

Based on 85 games across five seasons, the strongest positive relationships on the 49ers are shown in the table above — pairs of props that historically go Over together. Positive chemistry means the legs tell one story; the joint hit column shows how often both actually landed in the same game.

How often does the 49ers game total go Over?

Across the last five seasons the Over hit in 46 of 85 49ers games (54%), and 10 of 17 (59%) in the 2025 season. Totals context matters for every SGP: over-leaning games favor passing stacks, under-leaning games favor rush attempts and Unders.

Where do these numbers come from?

Every figure is computed from complete game-level box scores for all 32 teams across the 2021–2025 seasons — 85 games for the 49ers alone. Recent seasons are weighted more heavily. Lines shown are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines. Sample sizes are always displayed.

Keep exploring

49ers player profiles: Jauan Jennings · Brock Purdy · Christian McCaffrey · George Kittle · Ricky Pearsall · Kendrick Bourne

NFC West rivals: Arizona Cardinals · Los Angeles Rams · Seattle Seahawks

Guides: What is a correlated parlay? · SGP strategy that respects math · Why parlays lose money