Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, Washington Commanders) — every number below comes from real box scores across the 2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted, with sample sizes shown. Estimated lines are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines.
| Market | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 29% | 29% | 17 |
| Rec Yds | 42.5 | 41.0 | 50% | 50% | 16 |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 62% | 62% | 16 |
Props that historically rise and fall with Deebo Samuel Sr.'s production — the raw material of a coherent same game parlay.
| Partner Prop | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Yds | +0.53 | 5 of 16 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush TDs | +0.45 | 4 of 16 |
| Zach Ertz Rec TDs | +0.37 | 3 of 16 |
| Marcus Mariota Pass TDs | +0.34 | 3 of 17 |
| Marcus Mariota Interceptions | +0.05 | 4 of 16 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Att | -0.09 | 4 of 16 |
Stack Deebo Samuel Sr. in the Parlay Architect →
The table above shows the over rate against a trailing-median line for each market, in 2025 and across the full five-season sample. Rates near 50% are expected — lines track production. What matters for an SGP is which legs move together.
Historically, Jacory Croskey-Merritt — see the chemistry table. Positive chemistry means the props tend to go Over in the same games.
More Commanders: Washington Commanders SGP page · Guides: QB-WR stacking · Player props 101