Zach Ertz (TE, Washington Commanders) — every number below comes from real box scores across the 2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted, with sample sizes shown. Estimated lines are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines.
| Market | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rec TDs | 0.5 | 0.0 | 24% | 25% | 32 |
| Rec Yds | 41.5 | 38.0 | 50% | 37% | 27 |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | 58% | 56% | 27 |
Props that historically rise and fall with Zach Ertz's production — the raw material of a coherent same game parlay.
| Partner Prop | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. Receptions | +0.37 | 3 of 16 |
| Terry McLaurin Rec Yds | +0.36 | 6 of 21 |
| Marcus Mariota Pass TDs | +0.28 | 3 of 27 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Att | +0.10 | 3 of 17 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. Rush Yds | +0.05 | 1 of 17 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rush Yds | +0.02 | 3 of 17 |
Stack Zach Ertz in the Parlay Architect →
The table above shows the over rate against a trailing-median line for each market, in 2025 and across the full five-season sample. Rates near 50% are expected — lines track production. What matters for an SGP is which legs move together.
Historically, Deebo Samuel Sr. — see the chemistry table. Positive chemistry means the props tend to go Over in the same games.
More Commanders: Washington Commanders SGP page · Guides: QB-WR stacking · Player props 101