Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Miami Dolphins) — every number below comes from real box scores across the 2021–2025 seasons, recency-weighted, with sample sizes shown. Estimated lines are trailing medians, not live sportsbook lines.
| Market | Est. Line | Wtd Median | Over % '25 | Over % 5yr | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | 41% | 39% | 80 |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.0 | 53% | 40% | 80 |
| Pass Yds | 176.5 | 231.0 | 50% | 82% | 65 |
Props that historically rise and fall with Tua Tagovailoa's production — the raw material of a coherent same game parlay.
| Partner Prop | Chemistry | Both Over |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle Rec TDs | +0.58 | 15 of 80 |
| Jaylen Waddle Rec Yds | +0.45 | 35 of 60 |
| Jaylen Waddle Receptions | +0.37 | 26 of 60 |
| Darren Waller Rec TDs | +0.36 | 3 of 17 |
| De'Von Achane Rec Yds | +0.34 | 16 of 34 |
| De'Von Achane Rush Yds | +0.28 | 8 of 41 |
Stack Tua Tagovailoa in the Parlay Architect →
The table above shows the over rate against a trailing-median line for each market, in 2025 and across the full five-season sample. Rates near 50% are expected — lines track production. What matters for an SGP is which legs move together.
Historically, Jaylen Waddle — see the chemistry table. Positive chemistry means the props tend to go Over in the same games.
More Dolphins: Miami Dolphins SGP page · Guides: QB-WR stacking · Player props 101